351
FXUS64 KCRP 010923
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
423 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

-Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms today

-High Risk of rip currents today through Sunday


Some Gulf moisture is expected to ride around the ridge this morning
combining with a disturbance that is moving across the Central
Plains. Models are depicting the environment being somewhat
favorable for isentropic lift to occur at the 305K level. This will
allow for a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this
morning. This should clear by midday and give way to warm high
temperatures across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s
to lower 100s out west with heat indices around 110. Cloud cover
will potentially work against the high temperatures, thus negating
the need for a Heat Advisory today. Guidance is hinting at potential
MCS developing sometime this afternoon around the mountainous area
of Mexico and tracking eastwards towards the CWA. There are
discrepancies in the intensity and timing regarding this potential
MCS therefore confidence is remaining low at this time. SPC has put
the northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) to
account for this potential. Conditions dry out Sunday with the
potential for Heat Advisory conditions returning due to less cloud
cover and high dew points.

Due to the presence of elevated winds and seas and expectation for
this to persist through tomorrow, a High Risk for rip currents will
exist for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through the middle
of the week

- Hurricane season kicks off today, June 1.

No significant changes were made with this long term forecast update
as upper level ridging looks to remain in control. With that said,
on Monday, a shortwave ejecting across the Southern Plains may
suppress the ridge just enough to allow some pockets of vorticity to
rotate through the region. If this scenario were to materialize, we
could see some convection fire up across the Rio Grande and move our
way. Confidence is not too high in this outcome so only have a
slight chance mentioned Monday evening, mainly across the Brush
Country. In the wake of that shortwave, a stout upper ridge builds
across the Desert Southwest as a longwave trough digs into the
Midwest. A cold front will be sent south across much of the eastern
CONUS late next week but looks to stall before reaching us. Outside
of Monday evening, a relative rain-free week is in store for South
Texas.

The main concern in the long term is our increasing heat risk
through the week. High temps settle into the low 90s along the coast
to around 105-107 across the Brush Country by the middle of the
week. These warm temps and increasing low level moisture will allow
for heat indices to climb into the 110-114 range with a few
locations exceeding 115 Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, we can
expected a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through
much of the work week. There may be some slight relief towards the
end of the work week as drier air works into the region as ridging
builds in but likely won`t be enough to really make a difference.

With a relatively quiet forecast in store for the next week, now is
a great time to review your emergency preparedness plans. The 2024
Hurricane Season starts today and is expected to be an above normal
season. Regardless of how active it is, we know that it will only
take one storm to make this season a very bad season for the Middle
Texas coast so prepare now. Don`t know how to prepare? We have you
covered. Head over to weather.gov/crp/hurricaneguide to view our
2024 edition of the South Texas Hurricane Guide. There is tons of
information in there to help you be better prepared for this
hurricane season.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Low to mid level clouds are spreading across S TX and will
continue this trend through the night. Currently the CIGs are at
VFR levels but are expected to lower to MVFR between 06-10Z.
Patchy fog from ALI to VCT will also lead to a brief period of
MVFR VSBYs around daybreak Saturday. VFR conditions will become
prevalent by mid morning and will continue through Saturday
afternoon before lowering to MVFR levels once again Saturday
evening. Wind gusts from the southeast will range between 20-25
knots on Saturday. A few showers will be possible across the
eastern portions of S TX Saturday morning with an increasing
chance of thunderstorms by afternoon, mainly across the VCT area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow with periods of moderate onshore
flow will prevail through the day. There is a low to medium
chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.
Moderate to strong southeasterly winds are expected as we head
through the work week. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be
possible at times each afternoon through Wednesday, generally over
the southern waters and bays. Rain-free conditions are in store
for the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  81  94  81 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          91  78  93  79 /  30  10  10   0
Laredo           101  79 102  80 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             96  79  98  80 /  20  10   0   0
Rockport          91  82  90  83 /  30  10  10   0
Cotulla          101  80 102  81 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        93  80  95  80 /  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  92  83 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...NP/92