407
FXUS64 KCRP 272254
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
554 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper-level ridge will be the primary driver of the weather the
next couple of days. There is a low chance of fog development over
the inland Coastal Plains tonight as winds remain light and
variable under mostly clear skies. Lows tonight remain persistent,
from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast.

A very weak shortwave will ride westward on the southern
periphery of the ridge and combined with increasing moisture
(PWATs greater than 2.0"), will lead to low chances of showers and
thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains on Friday. High temperatures
will generally be in the 90s with a few areas over the Rio Grande
Plains reaching the triple digits. The increase in moisture will
lead to a degree or two warmer low temperatures on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Mid-level ridging will be in place much of the long-term period. On
Saturday, low-end rain chances (10-15%) are expected due to a series
of shortwaves propagating in the ridging aloft. These impulses
combined with diurnal heating may allow for the formation of showers
and thunderstorms. By Sunday, rain chances will increase (20-40%) as
a tropical wave moves into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico from the
Western Caribbean. This broad area of low pressure has a low-end
development chance of 30% over the next 7 days.

Regardless of it`s development, increased moisture will likely boost
rain chances. Additionally, the system may raise the risk of rip
currents and coastal flooding. However, a plume of Saharan dust
projected to move into South Texas this weekend could hinder
tropical development and reduce rain chances.

Following the tropical wave, upper level ridging will reestablish by
the start of next week, leading to an increase in temperatures.
Heat indices will likely meet Heat Advisory criteria daily,
particularly in the Southern Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, and parts
of the Northwestern Brush Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Light southeast winds will continue overnight, increasing to light
to moderate winds Friday afternoon. Low level moisture will be
sufficient to support patchy fog development leading to MVFR
visibility from 09Z-13Z, particularly over ALI and VCT. Over COT
and LRD, this moisture is more likely to result in brief MVFR
ceilings from 12Z-15Z, but with low confidence have left this out
of the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will strengthen to
moderate levels Friday night. Moderate onshore flow Saturday will
decrease to weak levels by the start of the work week. There is a
low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday. Skies may be hazy at times on Sunday as a
plume of Saharan dust spreads across the Western Gulf. By mid-
week, moderate flow will return and continue through the remainder
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  82  93 /   0  20   0   0
Victoria          78  94  79  94 /  10  20   0  10
Laredo            79  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  98  79  96 /   0  20   0   0
Rockport          83  93  84  93 /   0  20  10  10
Cotulla           79 102  81 101 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  96  81  94 /   0  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  84  91 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-241>244-
     342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...LS/77