987
FXUS61 KCTP 052356
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
756 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Mostly cloudy and humid into tonight with locally heavy
 downpours and a few gusty thunderstorms possible, esp S.
*Trending slightly warmer and less humid Thursday with risk of
 soaking showers and storms shifting into eastern PA
*Cooler/more comfortable conditions Fri-Sun with a couple of
 passing showers or a t-storm mainly during the afternoons

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MCV clearly visible in sat and now radar imagery/loops is
centered over KCBE at 19Z. This feature is providing lift and
decrease stability over the srn tier. The very high PWATs
(1.5-1.75") and training/dragging precip possible along the srn
tier counties is almost enough for a FF Watch, but the very high
FFG is the big negative to posting a watch. We do expect the
precip to be heaviest through 8 PM, sliding eastward slowly from
it`s current position with the positive forcing from the vort
max. Clouds could break for a short time this evening/early
tonight behind the vort max. The real/main cold front arrives in
the W after midnight. Storms over KTOL and central OH will slide
this way in advance of the front. That will create more
showers/storms. This could cause a renewal of minor flooding
problems, esp in the Laurels where the FFG is lowest
(1.5-2"/3hrs). The risk for SVR is on the low side, but the
shear increases overnight. Mins will hang up in the 60s to near
70 SE with the dewpoints that high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main cold front should be into the central counties by sunrise
Thurs. The threat for heavy rainfall should be just about over
then, as the highest PWAT air will be to the east. Left <50 PoPs
in the east in the morning. Additional convection is expected,
esp in the W) in the aftn as a secondary front moves through
and the upper cold pool nears. Thurs night stabilization should
diminish/kill most of the precip, but some fog is possible
as we cool off to near dewpoints. Maxes Thursday will be
similar to today, but humidity should get down to about 50pct
for most of the CWA, much less humid.

Friday should be more typical of a late-spring day under an
upper low. A channel of higher vorticity rolling across the
area should make numerous SHRA/TSRA. The showers should spread
from NW to SE thru the day/aftn, but might not get into the
Lower Susq. Maxes Fri should be much below normal with m60s in
the NWrn Alleghenies and nearer to normal with u70s over the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Reloading of the mean Glakes/NE U.S. upper trough by a few
shortwave troughs dropping Southeast will maintain the chc for
mainly diurnal showers/isolated to sctd TSRA through much of the
extended period.

Current indications are that by the end of the weekend into
early next week, the upper tough becomes positively tilted and
the low may retrograde slightly and stall over the Great Lakes
region, especially considering the additional energy helping to
deepen the trough. This will continue the unsettled pattern of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through at least
Monday afternoon. Long range ensembles currently show the trough
lifting after Tuesday morning with lower pops for showers/TSRA
as we head into the middle of next week.

Temperatures are likely to average somewhat below climatology
for early to mid-June, with daily highs in the upper 60s and
70s, and overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deteriorating flying conditions are expected this evening, with
showers, isolated thunderstorms and falling cigs ahead of an
approaching warm front. Latest HREF prob charts support MVFR
cigs becoming widespread this evening, with IFR cigs likely over
the higher elevations, especially over Northern PA. Latest
guidance indicates the warm front will lift into Southern PA
after midnight, resulting in a return to predominantly VFR
conditions over that part of the state, while IFR cigs persist
over the N Mtns of PA.

Improving flying conditions are anticipated late Thursday morning,
as a trailing cold front comes through followed by the arrival
of a drier southwest flow. Model RH profiles support
predominantly VFR conditions Thursday afternoon and evening.
However, a few thunderstorms could form on the cold front as it
crosses the Lower Susq Valley early Thu afternoon, bringing the
chance of a brief vis reduction in vicinity of KMDT/KLNS. Also,
latest HREF indicates a brief shower/vis reduction will remain
possible across the Allegheny Plateau (KBFD/KJST) through early
evening.


Outlook...

Fri...Slight chance of a brief PM shower/vis reduction, mainly
NW Mtns.

Sat...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns. Slight chance of PM
shower/vis reduction NW Mtns.

Sun...Slight chance of a brief PM shower/vis reduction, mainly
NW Mtns.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Bowen
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Tyburski