494
FXUS61 KCTP 110531
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
131 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* After a cool overnight, temperatures will be on the rise
  through the week as high pressure brings a stretch of dry
  weather with relatively low humidity, light winds, and plenty
  of sunshine.
* The next significant chance of rain will be this Friday, as a
  cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Considerable cloudiness persists across the Allegheny Plateau
heading into the overnight hours. A few light rain showers or
sprinkles remain possible near the Mason-Dixon line.

It will be another cool overnight, with low temperatures
dipping into the 40s across the Allegheny Plateau and the low to
mid 50s in the Susquehanna and Cumberland valleys.

If we can get the clouds to break, we could see a bit of fog
formation overnight as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough that has kept temperatures on the cool side the
past few days will begin to lift out of the area on Tuesday.
The northwest mtns should see a 5-10 degree bump in max temps,
while more modest warming of perhaps a couple of degrees is
expected elsewhere.

High pressure will begin to build in Tuesday night, which will
support clearing skies and calm winds. Patchy valley fog is
possible, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s
northwest to mid 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We`re still expecting a warm up for the second half of the
week, with afternoon highs topping out Thursday for most
locations, and perhaps Friday for SE PA.

The next chc of rain will come in the form of showers/storms in
the Thursday night into Friday timeframe, accompanying the
arrival of a cold front. The potential for stronger storms may
end up being determined by the timing of the cold front.

Next weekend looks dry, as a northerly flow of drier air from
Canada is advected into our area. Any slight cool down on
Saturday will be short-lived, with warmer temperatures progged
to build back into the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06z update... The latest observed satellite trends plus model
guidance yields fairly high confidence (70-80%) that lower
clouds will hang tough through at least 15-18z across the
Allegheny Highland (KBFD and KJST) and ridge and valley region
(KAOO and KUNV) terminal sites. KBFD should see the lowest
conditions (IFR restrictions), while KJST, KAOO, and KUNV are
more in the fuel alternate-MVFR range.

We do expect an improving trend during the afternoon and early
evening, especially for KAOO and KUNV, with VFR likely returning
at each of these sites by 21-00z. There could be some patchy fog
develop again after 03-04z, with the highest potential (40-60%)
for this at KBFD.

Farther east across the Susquehanna Valley terminal sites (KIPT,
KMDT, and KLNS), cloud cover should be thinner and with higher
ceiling bases, so confidence is fairly high (around 80%) of
prevailing VFR.

NW surface winds 5-10 kt for most sites today, should diminish
to light speeds by/after sunset.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions possible if afternoon/evening CB/TSRA
develop.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego/Bowen
LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Bowen/Tyburski