Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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853 FXUS61 KCTP 100306 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1106 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A cold front will pull east of the area overnight, ushering in a reinforcing shot of cooler air. * Highs on Monday will be 5F to 15F below average for mid-June. * Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with relatively low humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Lingering showers are quickly diminishing during the late evening hours, and should dissipate completely overnight. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will be ushered in overnight behind a secondary cold front, allowing low temperatures to drop into the 40s in the northern tier and the mid to upper 50s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave aloft will support more clouds than sun over the higher terrain along with isolated showers across the northern mtns. Monday will be the coolest day of the week, as temperatures struggle to reach 60 degrees across the northern tier. Even the Lower Susq Valley should only top out in the mid 70s. These high temperatures will be 5F to 15F degrees below average for mid-June. Another cool night is in store for Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s across the Allegheny Plateau to the mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper-level troughiness will persist over the northeastern United States into Tuesday, before the upper flow should become more zonal for the second half of the week. This will allow the cool temperatures early in the week to moderate significantly during the second half of the week. It looks like Thursday and Friday will be downright summer-like, with highs topping 80 degrees areawide and even approaching or topping the 90-degree mark in the valleys of south-central Pennsylvania. The next chance of showers and storms will be Friday, as a cold front drops southeastward from the Great Lakes. High pressure should build back in for next weekend, with a brief cool down expected on Saturday before temperatures begin another upward trend on Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most TAF sites remain VFR with breezy conditions this evening. A few showers crossing the airspace will pass with no reductions at most airfields except KBFD. An area of showers will impact the airfield through about 02Z/10, mainly with reduced vsby for the next hour or so. A secondary sfc cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air and considerable cloudiness late tonight into Monday. There is a high chance (~90%) that ceilings over the western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR by daybreak Monday, with a ~40-50% chance of IFR ceilings. Restrictions will likely last through much of the day Monday. Farther to the south and east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period. Outlook... Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs likely, mainly north. Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. Fri...Restrictions poss with if afternoon/evening convection develops. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evanego/Colbert NEAR TERM...Evanego SHORT TERM...Evanego/Colbert LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego AVIATION...Guseman/Gartner