564
FXUS61 KCTP 071736
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
136 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions will be cooler, breezy and pleasant heading into the
weekend with low humidity. A disturbance aloft will touch off
scattered showers this afternoon over central and northern
Pennsylvania, with a few thunderstorms possible over the
northern tier of central Pennsylvania. After another round of
showers on Sunday, we expect a reinforcement of cool air Monday
preceding a warming trend towards the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Self destruct cumulus have developed over all but my far
southeast zones, as a shortwave rotating around the base of
a seasonably strong 500mb trough approaches. Lift and
instability from this feature will trigger diurnal showers
across central and north central PA, with a few t-storms
possible over the northern tier of central PA.

It won`t be as warm as yesterday thanks to cooler temps aloft
and expanding instability cumulus field. Highs in the 65-80F
range are 5-10F cooler than Thursday with similar departures
from climo over the western and northern Alleghenies. Low pwat
air combined with steep low level lapse rates/BL mixing favors
lowering dewpoints and increasing wind gusts especially during
peak heating.

Shower activity fades by late tonight with a decreasing POP
trend 00-12Z Saturday. Low temps in the 50-60F range are within
a few degrees either side of early June climo. Partial clearing
could allow patchy fog to form toward daybreak Saturday in the
deeper east-central valleys, but the dry air and persistent
westerly breeze should maintain good visibility in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will start off breezy and pleasant with low RH
and no precip as high pressure migrates over the area. More
sunshine will allow for slightly warmer max temps (vs. Friday)
with highs in the 70-80F range.

Model consensus continues to indicate the next period of
showers from late Saturday night into Sunday night as another
shortwave trough and cold front move through the region.
Continued breezy and relatively cool for this time of year with
max/min temps near to below the historical avg. for early June.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An abnormally deep upper level low over eastern Canada will keep
cooler than normal temperatures across the area for the first
half of next week. After a chance of some showers on Sunday,
most of next week should be mainly dry. Fcst trending drier
today. Temperatures should slowly warm as one heads into the
later part of next week.

There could be some showers by late week, as additional cold
fronts drop to the southeast in northwest flow. While the
airmass ahead of each front is expected to be on the warm side,
low level moisture at this point is expected to be limited.
However past experience is that one needs to watch such a
pattern for isolated strong storms if moisture gets advected
into the area. Overall a drier pattern than in recent weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of early afternoon, showers have been north of interstate 80.
Still possible that a few showers may get a little further
south, as the airmass cools aloft.

Expect winds to weaken several hours after sunset. Expect CIGS
to stay mainly in the VFR range, but a brief period of lower
CIGS may be possible at BFD, thus used a TEMPO group at BFD.

Winds will pick up again on Saturday, just after sunrise.

Earlier discussion below.

Tne sun has resulted in some showers across the northwest
mountains as of late morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
be a bit further north.

Main thing for most of the area will be a gusty west wind
this afternoon, as the colder air aloft is mixed downward.

Dewpoints not real high, and aside from the southeast on
Wednesday, the area has not had a lot of heavy rain this
week, so the chance of widespread fog tonight is not very high.

Less change of showers on Saturday, as weak high pressure
builds into the area.

A fast moving cold front will bring a chance of showers and
storms back into the area for Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north/west of Allegheny Front. A chance of showers, perhaps a
storm.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Martin