370
FXUS61 KCTP 091721
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
121 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*This afternoon will be pleasant albeit breezy with northwest
 winds and a mix of clouds and sun.
*Isolated showers or thundershowers may develop across the
 northern tier this evening ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold
 air, which will keep highs 5 to 15F below average on Monday.
*Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as
 high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with low
 humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies will be partly sunny across central PA for the remainder
of the afternoon. Any showers or thundershowers that may develop
across the far north will likely hold off until after 6 PM,
with a 40 pct chance of precip across the northern tier from
6-10 PM. Otherwise today will be breezy and relatively cool
with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to near 80 in
the southern tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A reinforcing shot of cold air will be ushered in overnight
behind a secondary cold front, allowing temperatures to drop
into the upper 40s in the northern tier and the upper 50s in
the southeast. On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave
aloft will support more clouds than sun and isolated showers or
sprinkles across the northern tier. Monday will be the coldest
day of the week as temperatures struggle to make it out of the
50s in the northern tier. High temperatures will be -5F to -15F
compared to average for this time of year.

Another chilly night is in store for Monday night with lows
ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations in the Laurel
Highlands and northwest mountains to mid 50s in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. Tuesday
and Wednesday do look dry as a lack of moisture will make it
difficult for showers to form, despite the upper level low
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures will be on a warning trend for Thu and Fri, with
high temps making a run at the low 90s across the south by
Friday. There could also be some showers and t-storms by
Friday, as a cold front drops southeastward across the area by
Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited
at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern
provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture
gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance that
far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light rain showers moving east ahead of a cool front crossing
the central PA airspace. IFR to Low MVFR ceilings in portions of
the northwest Alleghenies, including BFD/JST, and borderline
MVFR ceilings through UNV/AOO will lift later this morning as
the front blows through. This will result in breezy northwest
winds developing through this afternoon, with gusts of around 25
mph at times.

Additionally, there is a good chance (~90%) that ceilings over
the western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR
by daybreak Monday, with a ~50-60% chance of IFR ceilings. Farther
to the east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a
period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS)
should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs poss, mainly north.

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego