546
FXUS65 KCYS 050811
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
211 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect for a large part of
  southeast Wyoming until Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts 60-65
  MPH are expected, especially overnight into early Wednesday
  morning.

- A significant warming trend is expected through mid to late
  week, with widespread highs in the 80s and lower 90s on
  Thursday and Friday.

- Saturday through Monday will see increasing chances for
  afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The warmest
  day will be Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures for
  Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Pretty tranquil conditions this morning so far. Strong winds
have yet to develop. Current gusts out near Arlington in the mid
to upper 40 mph range. This with Craig to Casper 850/700mb
height gradients of 55/46mtrs respectively at 06Z.

Height gradients continue to increase this morning...up to
66/57mtrs by 12Z. GFS 700/750mb winds increase from 40kts
currently to 50-55kts by 12Z. Am going to let the current wind
warnings run as they area this morning. Pretty sure those winds
will increase as the early morning progresses. May need to
cancel the warnings early as gradients do begin to ease after
18Z.

A sunny and warm/dry day expected today as 700mb temperatures
climb to +10 to +12C over southeast Wyoming. Afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s east with low 80s west are expected.

Even warmer temperatures for Thursday and Friday as 700mb
temperatures climb to +14 to +16C resulting in warmer
temperatures across the CWA. Could see mid 90s in the Panhandle
Friday.

Will start to see a cold front dropping south out of Montana
Friday afternoon as the upper ridge axis shifts east. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms returning late Friday afternoon
along that front. ECMWF/Sref/GFS all showing fairly widespread
QPF across the CWA Saturday at 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Friday night/Saturday...A shortwave trough aloft moves overhead,
along with its associated cold front, which will provide cooler
temperatures with surface high pressure over the northern Plains
states producing upslope surface winds for our forecast area. With
an increase in low and mid level moisture, and low level upslope, we
anticipate scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
scattered thunderstorms, most numerous near the Colorado state line.

Sunday...Ridging aloft becomes more pronounced across Wyoming,
though with west flow aloft continuing and adequate low and mid
level moisture along with low level upslope lift, we expect
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Saturday with abundant cloud
cover, with 700 mb temperatures near 10 Celsius yielding high
temperatures in the 70s.

Monday...Northwest flow aloft develops and with plenty of low and
mid level moisture available, scattered late day showers and
thunderstorms will be on tap again. Temperatures slightly warmer
than Sunday with less cloud coverage.

Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft remains, though with increasing
heights aloft along with warmer temperatures, and a decrease in low
and mid level moisture, only isolated to widely scattered late day
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Slightly warmer with more
sunshine expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions expected across area terminal through the
forecast period. Winds will increase again after 06z headed
towards daybreak Wednesday, continuing through the afternoon.
Mountain wave activity could support brief periods of 50 kt wind
gusts, especially near daybreak Wednesday. For NE panhandle
terminals, gusty northwest winds around 30 kt are expected for
much of Wednesday. Winds will begin to let up Wednesday evening
with NE panhandle terminals turning northeasterly as a backdoor
cold front slides through the area.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ104-118.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ106-109-
     110-115>117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AM
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MB