978
FXUS65 KCYS 202034
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
234 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon with hail, strong
  winds, and heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out a tornado with any
  longer track supercells that develop. Severe thunderstorm
  potential continues Friday.

- Hot temperatures are expected for Sunday through the middle of
  next week. Highs exceeding 100F will be possible (40-60%
  chance) particularly on Monday.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Mesoscale trends continue to be monitored ahead of today`s
severe weather event in southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
As of 18z/noon, high-based convective towers were noted along
and just west of the Laramie Range in southeast Wyoming where
dewpoints are generally in the upper-30s and low-40s with
southwesterly surface winds. A dryline boundary was noted on
KCYS radar imagery over the south Laramie range, which per
surface observations likely extends northward along the western
fringes of the Laramie Range and into the Shirley Basin. East
of this boundary and into the high plains, easterly surface
winds are transporting rich surface moisture toward the dryline
boundary in general east-southeasterly flow. With 30-40 knots of
southwesterly flow aloft, bulk shear values AoA 45 knots are in
place over the high plains.

Several important nuances in satellite and surface observations
are evident that may ultimately assist with zeroing in on the
greatest threat zone today. The character of surface cloud cover
in the eastern Wyoming high plains depicts a gradient of
stabilization, also evident in wind/Td fields. In far southeast
Wyoming over CYS, low- level cloud cover has generally mixed out
late in the morning giving way to clear skies and lower
dewpoint values as a relatively shallow moist layer mixes away.
Farther north in central Platte and Goshen counties, surface
cumulus clouds over the North Platte River valley from BFF
through TOR and GUR have remained in place despite surface
mixing and heating. With surface dewpoints remaining in the low
60s and more backed winds to the east compared with locations
farther south, a favorable combination of deeper surface
moisture and better low-level hodograph shape exists here. Even
farther north along the US-20 corridor from Douglas through
Lusk/Chadron, morning convection has draped an outflow boundary
along this corridor with backed northeasterly flow north of
this feature. It is likely that conditions will remain capped
to the north of this boundary today given plentiful lingering
mid- level cloud cover.

With all this being said, the most favorable overlap of surface
moisture, better directional wind shear, and upper-level support
appears to be throughout Platte and Goshen County Wyoming as
well as points farther east through Scottsbluff and Alliance.
Mid-morning CAM guidance has continuously depicted initially
discrete supercell activity here, eventually merging into a
linear storm mode as outflows pool. Hail early in storm mode,
then high winds later in the day appear to be the most likely
threats. The tornado threat will likely be dependent on if any
initial discrete cells can tap into enhanced low-level shear
near/along the lingering outflow boundary in far northern
Platte, Goshen, Sioux and Dawes counties. These features will
continue to be monitored throughout the early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Surface low analyzed across east central Albany County this
afternoon. Warm front from this low extends eastward to
Wheatland and eventually to Alliance and into central Nebraska.
Cold front extends southwest into southwest Albany County into
northwestern Colorado. Storms are forming along these fronts
this afternoon. North of the front...there still is some capping
seen on RAP mesoanalysis...while south of the front...surface
based CAPE ranges from 2000 J/KG over southern Wyoming to 3500
J/KG over the central Panhandle. Looks like the HRRR simulated
radar is handling convective development the best this
afternoon.

This supercell tracks east into southern Sioux/northern Scotts
Bluff and eastern Box Butte Counties through late afternoon.
Storms line out over the central Panhandle towards 00Z from
Alliance south west to Kimball. Some redevelopment of storms
behind this line across Platte and Goshen Counties through 02Z.

Concern tonight for stratus and fog returning to the northern
Panhandle. Did bring low clouds and fog back into
Dawes...northern Sioux and Niobrara Counties tonight.

Warm front remains over the northeast portion of the CWA for
Friday afternoon. This will be the focus for severe storms
Friday. SPC has a Slight Risk area identified for Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A hot and largely dry weather pattern will dominate much of the
week ahead. Friday`s shortwave trough will be off to our east
by early Saturday morning, leaving dry air advection over much
of our area in its wake. The shortwave moving east will break
down the potent ridge that has been dominant over the central
and eastern US this week. However, the ridge will then
retrograde westward and expand over the Four Corners states
through the weekend. Models are in good agreement showing the
ridge remaining fairly stationary but amplifying through the
middle of next week. Ensemble mean 500-mb heights over KCYS
climb from around 587-dm at 12z Saturday to a maximum of 592-dm
by Tuesday evening. Temperatures should return above normal on
Saturday as 700-mb temps climb to around +15C over the Wyoming
portion of the forecast area. Widespread 80s to lower 90s will
still probably be the coolest day of the long term forecast
period. By Sunday, 700-mb temperatures edge up to +16 to +18C
and remain there or higher through at least Tuesday, and
possibly beyond. Look for widespread 90s on Sunday, and possibly
a few degrees higher on Monday. Some areas will have a good
chance at surpassing 100F. Current probabilities of 100+F
temperatures on Monday are sitting around 40% for Chadron,
Torrington, and Bridgeport, but over 60% for Scottsbluff.
Forecast confidence decreases somewhat beyond Monday, as the
amplifying ridge may open the door to a few weak shortwaves
sliding over the top. Some of these could have the potential to
bring surface cold fronts through the area. While there is
nearly every ensemble member has extremely hot temperatures on
Sunday and Monday, about 20% of members bring a front through
our northern counties by Tuesday, and this proportion rises for
Wednesday and Thursday. Overall, the forecast still leans quite
hot, but by mid-week there is a little bit more uncertainty.

Other than the heat, the week ahead looks fairly dry too.
Precipitable water values don`t look too bad, hovering around
average for Saturday into early next week. However, the combination
of dry low-levels (due to the dry-line getting pulled eastward) and
warm air aloft will reduce precipitation chances. We should still
see some activity each day, but it will be much less widespread than
Thursday and Friday. With inverted-v soundings showing up in the
forecast in place of decent mid to upper level moisture lingering,
expect each day to put up some scattered radar echos, but the chance
for measurable precipitation on the ground looks fairly low.
Showers may lead to dry microbursts through this hot period. The
majority of ensemble members allow the dryline to pull back to the
west by Tuesday or Wednesday, increasing low level moisture and thus
the chance for more noteworthy precipitation and thunderstorm
activity for the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Thunderstorms are the main issue this afternoon across southeast
Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. Using HRRR and RAP simulated
radar for timing and locations of storms. Lower flight
conditions tonight across the northern Nebraska Panhandle with
easterly winds continuing overnight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MAC
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...GCC