Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
853 FNUS28 KWNS 122221 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$