613
FNUS28 KWNS 232041
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great
Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next
weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over
the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday
period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to
have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and
evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime
may yield wind/RH values similar to today`s (Sunday`s) fire weather
conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence
in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions
has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both
D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability
for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be
very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern
Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support
the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further
north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing
rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be
monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the
Cascades.

The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS
through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow
regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster
analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific
Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy
conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However,
confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this
range.

..Moore.. 06/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$