546
FNUS28 KWNS 112153
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

...Summary...
Elevated fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin,
Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest late this week into
the weekend. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive
across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot,
dry conditions. A relatively localized area of 70 percent Critical
probabilities is anticipated D4/Friday near the NM/AZ border.

...Synopsis...
Throughout the day D3/Thursday, a cut-off low and associated
mid-level jet are expected to move onshore over southern CA, AZ, and
the northern Baja Peninsula. A deeply mixed air mass ahead of this
feature will allow momentum transfer of some of the stronger flow
aloft to translate to surface. However, the probability of wind
speeds reaching critical thresholds remains low. This closed low
will begin to open D4/Friday as it progresses eastward over AZ and
NM, with a slow decrease and extent of the mid-level jet. Surface
pressure falls across southern NM, and the associated tightening
pressure gradient from the NM/AZ border eastward, are still expected
to yield at least widespread elevated wind speeds across this region
ahead of a cold front. In addition, a small area of 70 percent
Critical probabilities remain in place near and south of the Gila
and San Francisco Mountains, where sustained west-southwesterly wind
speeds have a higher chance of persistently exceeding limits.
Further north D4/Friday over the Pacific Northwest, another mid to
upper-level trough and jet max will shift eastward during the day.
Drying, downslope flow and a tightening pressure gradient near the
Cascade mountains will likely accompany this feature.

As the weekend approaches, increasing west-southwesterly surface
flow will return to the southern Great Basin ahead of another cold
front. Low Critical probabilities still appear valid within this
region D5/Saturday, via momentum transfer from aloft and a locally
tightening pressure gradient. Furthermore, increasing mid-level flow
will accompany a shortwave trough entering the southern Great Basin
D6/Sunday, extending the area of Critical low probabilities across
the northern half of AZ, extreme southeastern NV, and far western
NM. The potential for elevated to critical conditions to continue
into D7/Monday, and perhaps D8/Tuesday, across the Southwest is
present. However, confidence in more precise locations is too low at
this time to include probabilities.

..Barnes.. 06/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$