840
FNUS28 KWNS 102212
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

...Overview...
Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected
across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific
Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to
generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack
of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most
significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating
fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border.

...Synopsis...
By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the
southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches
southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong
zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest
through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves
onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are
expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of
southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface
pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for
this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low
teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift
eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to
upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term
NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of
critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent
probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado
Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were
also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the
Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will
begin to approach or exceed 90-95.

The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward
over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under
the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and
where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside.
Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds
should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving
into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very
low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more
widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are
anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM.

In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and
windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the
extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing
mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds,
and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out.
However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is
too low to introduce probabilities for the time being.

..Barnes.. 06/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$