Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
171 FNUS28 KWNS 202151 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$