666
FNUS28 KWNS 172113
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over
the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass
through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the
weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low
humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the
trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop
over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly
offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is
present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for
fire-weather conditions is relatively low.

...Southern Plains...
As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly
flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High
Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread.
Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days.
However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface
winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the
week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week
could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels
are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather
concerns is possible.

...West Coast...
Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance
shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while
broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this
occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support
some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal
ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is
significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer
solution develops.

..Lyons.. 09/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$