Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
353 FNUS28 KWNS 221947 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$