Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
953 FNUS28 KWNS 052205 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$