Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
668 ACUS48 KWNS 190820 SWOD48 SPC AC 190818 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a shortwave trough and possible lead wave over the northern Plains on Saturday/D4 will move east/southeast toward the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast through Sunday/D5. There is quite a bit of variability with this setup, and as a result predictability is low. However, at least a low-end risk of severe storms may occur over the upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday/D4. Instability looks to get weaker as the trough shifts into the Northeast on Sunday/D5, but any of the stronger trough solutions could pose at least a marginal risk for severe weather at that time. From Monday/D6 and beyond, it appears the stronger flow aloft will be relegated to the US/CN border, with generally low severe potential across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024