Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
645 ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SWOD48 SPC AC 040850 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature cyclone and associated troughing will cover much of the northeast CONUS through the weekend. At the same time, ridging will build over the western CONUS. This amplified trough/ridge pattern will likely remain in place until at least D6/Sunday, but guidance has struggled to converge on a solution from D6/Sunday through D8/Tuesday, with the guidance showing notable run-to-run variability. General expectation is for low-level moisture advection to result in moderate to strong buoyancy over the central and southern High Plains on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across appears possible. Forecast confidence decreases after D5/Saturday, with the variability within the guidance resulting in limited predictability. There is some chance the pattern remains fairly stagnant, with additional days of afternoon southern/central High Plains storms possible. However, the 00Z guidance suite has trended towards the progression of a strong front across the central and eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, with thunderstorms possible along the front. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024