154
ACUS48 KWNS 250739
SWOD48
SPC AC 250738

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8
period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly
weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper
troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be
reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern
Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough
shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across
the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system
will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger
vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the
Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak
deep-layer flow expected across these areas.

..Leitman.. 09/25/2024