Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
925 ACUS48 KWNS 250822 SWOD48 SPC AC 250821 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Friday: Central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... The mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface cyclone that move across the northern Plains on Thursday are forecast to continue eastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Friday. Details regarding storm evolution remain uncertain, due to the potential influence of early-day convection, and a tendency for stronger mid/upper-level flow to be displaced from the more favorable instability. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop along a cold front across parts of IA/MO into the central Plains. Some severe threat could also evolve across parts of MN/WI, depending on the extent of heating/destabilization in closer proximity to the surface cyclone. ...D5/Saturday: Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Predictability begins to wane by this weekend regarding the timing/amplitude of the shortwave trough expected to move from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast/New England. There is some potential for stronger deep-layer flow to overspread an increasingly moist warm sector, but details regarding the surface pattern remain uncertain, and rather warm temperatures aloft could limit destabilization potential. Some potential for strong to locally severe storms could evolve on D5/Saturday along/ahead of a cold front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast. ...D6/Sunday - D8/Tuesday... Guidance generally suggests that another mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Northwest into the northern Rockies and Great Plains, sometime in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and amplitude of this shortwave and evolution of the surface pattern, but some organized severe-thunderstorm potential could eventually develop from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by early next week. ..Dean.. 06/25/2024