430
ACUS48 KWNS 240751
SWOD48
SPC AC 240750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-end tropical cyclone related tornado risk may continue into
Day 4/Fri from parts of the Southeast toward the central Appalachian
vicinity. However, spread among medium range guidance is quite large
at this time frame regarding the position of the remnant tropical
cyclone.

Beyond Day 4/Fri, medium range guidance generally maintains an
closed upper cyclone across the broader Mid-South and Ohio Valley
vicinity through Day 6/Sun before this feature weakens and an open
wave trough evolves and progresses east toward the Atlantic coast
through early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging will persist
across much of the western half of the CONUS. Overall, severe
potential beyond Day 4/Fri appears low given areas of widespread
precipitation and cloudiness, along with limited instability and
weakening deep-layer flow with time.

..Leitman.. 09/24/2024