Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
057 ACUS48 KWNS 210754 SWOD48 SPC AC 210752 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low. Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day 4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return flow. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024