Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
969 ACUS48 KWNS 150835 SWOD48 SPC AC 150834 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough near the northern High Plains at 12Z Wednesday should slow as it largely progresses across the southern Prairie Provinces. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should linger over the northern Great Plains through Thursday, and aid in a recharging and downstream advection of steep mid-level lapse rates over the Dakotas and NE. The low-level moisture plume near the edge of the EML should be confined, as dry conditions persist in the Great Lakes region, on the backside of the low-amplitude mid-level trough over the East. Low-probability severe may occur along a portion of a weak cold front on Thursday in the north-central states. The next shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should remain positive tilt and slow moving, until around next weekend when guidance consensus suggests it accelerates northeastward as another shortwave trough digs into the Northwest. This pattern should yield more muted mid-level lapse rates over most of the Great Plains, especially into next weekend. As such, severe probabilities may remain low through the period. ..Grams.. 09/15/2024