034
FXUS63 KDDC 182310
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight storms in northwest and north central Kansas could
  have some brief gusty winds.

- A more organized severe weather event is on tap for Sunday
  with the primary threat being downburst winds 70 mph or
  greater with the potential to be destructive winds.

- Cooler temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

18Z observations and upper air analysis shows a cold front
located from central Kansas to around Liberal which is slowly
progressing to the south and east. Winds behind the front have
increased to 20-30 mph. A 1006 mb surface low is located in the
Texas panhandle in association with an upper level shortwave
while mid level winds are generally zonal.

Tonight the main feature of interest is a forecast MCS to
develop in northeast Colorado around sunset. Ahead of the storm
complex a 700 mb shortwave and surface low will develop and the
present cold front will lift back to the north as a warm front
which should allow the return of more robust moisture as the
winds switch back to the southeast. Through the evening and
overnight hours BUFKIT soundings in northwest and northcentral
Kansas show the storm will be quite elevated and the main threat
would be downburst winds up to 60 mph and as a result there is a
marginal risk of severe weather. These storms will likely affect
areas along an north of a Syracuse to Hays line through sunrise
Sunday morning.

Sunday there should be a brief outflow boundary from the
overnight convection which will stabilize the atmosphere
through mid morning. Afterwards as the winds turn back to the
southeast we will have growing moisture and instability ahead of
a developing dryline along the Kansas-Colorado border. Mid level
temperatures will be quite warm at 10-11(C) however with
forecast highs reaching to the mid 90s around the dryline this
should be warm enough to erode any cap we have. A 700 mb
shortwave should move into the vicinity of the dryline around
20-21Z and thunderstorm initiation should quickly result around
the Kansas/Colorado border. If we do have any supercells they
will quickly evolve into a linear squall line within a couple
hours. With short term models forecasting 3,000 J/kg or more
CAPE these storms will have plenty of energy to work with as the
progress eastward. Main threat for severe weather on Sunday will
be straight line winds as the 12Z HRRR has hints of wind gusts
approaching 75-80 kts once the line gets into the most robust
moisture along and east of highway 183. Secondary threat with
any squall line could be some brief QLCS spin up tornadoes
embedded in the line. Hail threat will be the most with initial
storm development and then lessen as the storms become more
linear. The bulk of the line should be through by Sunday
evening.

Sunday evening as the main line of storms moves into central
Kansas HRRR models hint at a secondary line of storms developing
on an outflow/frontal boundary along K-96. If there is any
instability left after the initial line this could certainly be
a possibility. Storms look to fester between K-96 and I-70
through close to sunrise on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Monday medium range ensembles have a large longwave trough in
the western CONUS and southwest winds at 700 mb will push a
shortwave into western Kansas by 00Z. With how the track of the
surface to 850 mb the majority of the rain and storms will be
concentrated in northwest and north central Kansas into
Nebraska.

Tuesday into Wednesday the longwave trough will be concentrated
in the northern plains with a strong cold front moving into
Kansas Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the
70s.

A warming trend will return towards the end of the week as highs
get into the middle 80s. The more active part of the jet stream
looks to be in the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. A couple
rounds of thunderstorms are possible this period, the first only
near HYS during the 07-16Z Sunday time frame, and the second
near the end of the period at all terminals. Low confidence in
timing only supported VCTS in the TAFs, but any direct terminal
impact will bring MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and vis. Otherwise,
ongoing breezy east/southeast winds will weaken to aoa 12 kts over
the next couple hours as they slowly veer to southerly overnight.
Around 13-15Z Sunday, winds will increase into the 18-23 kt
range with gusts of 28-33 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Springer