685
FXUS63 KDDC 200341
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1041 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread low stratus clouds are expected Monday morning.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible along I-70 Monday evening.

- Cooler temperatures mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

17Z obs and upper air analysis shows widespread low 60 dewpoints
along and ahead of the dryline which is located in the far
western Oklahoma panhandle. A cu field is starting to show up on
satellite near Clayton, NM which will be monitored over the next
couple of hours for storm initiation. CAMs have been consistent
with storms forming and intensifying just west of the CO-KS
border around 2 pm and quickly expanding and growing linear as
they move eastward. HRRR wind gusts have been showing 60-80 kt
wind potential at 10m starting near the K-25 corridor and
growing eastward through the late afternoon and evening for the
rest of southwest Kansas. Storm warnings will most likely
reflect this with WEA activation for 80+ mph destructive wind
threat. Another threat that will be monitored as the squall line
matures east of highway 83 is QLCS tornadoes. 0-3 km bulk shear
values are already SW at 35 kts east of highway 281 and are
expected to increase with the intensification of the low level
jet after 00Z. QLCS tornadoes will be very hard to have lead
time on warnings as they are usually quick spin ups and along
with the already destructive straight line wind threat
regardless if the winds are rotating or straight they will be
over 80 mph. The squall line should be out of DDC CWA by 03Z.

Lower confidence of a rogue supercell this evening is still in
play mainly in NW Oklahoma around Woodward however this could be
as far north as Coldwater-Medicine Lodge. If this happens with
the low level jet, the moisture, and instability...this
particular feature could have giant hail and supercell tornado
potential.

Monday most of the day will be the atmosphere recharging as we
should have a weak frontal boundary and southeast winds bringing
in the return of some moisture. By the late afternoon and
evening a shortwave trough is forecast to develop in northwest
to north central Kansas and we could see another round of some
strong to severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Short long term discussion due to upcoming severe weather event
today. Main feature in the medium term model ensembles is a
large longwave trough over the western CONUS which will bring a
stronger cold front across Kansas Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Most of the moisture and instability ahead of the
front will be in central Kansas and thus the severe weather
potential in southwest Kansas looks low. The longwave trough
hangs on in the central and northern plains through the late
workweek and with the upper level lows more in the northern
plains the storm threat will be mostly due to frontal passages
in northwest and north central Kansas Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Thunderstorms have ended across SW KS as of 0330z Mon. Strong
consensus of short term models is for IFR stratus to spread
rapidly to all airports through 12z Mon, in response to a strong
moisture return on light moist easterly upslope flow. Some
reduced visibility in BR/FG is possible, but the high confidence
is with the stratus. After 15z Mon, stratus is expected to
dissolve from south to north, with VFR returning to all
airports. Light winds will trend light SEly through 00z Tue.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner