753
FXUS63 KDDC 090710
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool temperatures expected today.

- Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to extreme southwest
  Kansas Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building as it transitions
east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a cold front
is pushing south through the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

Lingering showers early this morning are expected to give way to
Tranquil conditions through the remainder of the period as the
SREF indicates ridging aloft continuing to slowly build as it
drifts eastward through the Colorado Rockies into the Western
High Plains. A weakening flow aloft and a lack of instability
present as surface high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest/Central
Plains will hinder precip chances (<10%) through tonight. Well
below normal temperatures are forecast today as dominating surface
high pressure in the Upper Midwest helps reinforce a cooler air
mass settled across southwest/central Kansas with H85 temperatures
holding around to a little above 15C. The HREF indicates a 30-50%
probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central Kansas
to a 70-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F farther east. For
tonight, there is a 20-30% probability of temperatures dropping
below 60F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 80-90% probability
of lows falling below 60F in central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Minimal shower/thunderstorm chances (20-30%) are forecast Monday and
Tuesday as medium range ensembles show a weak upper level shortwave
trough sliding southeast out of the Southern Rockies into panhandles
of Oklahoma/Texax. A prevailing southeasterly upslope flow on the
back side of a departing surface high will draw ample moisture
into western Kansas, pushing dewpoints well up into the 50s(F)
Monday, and farther up into the 60s(F) Tuesday. Although a
prevailing flow aloft will remain relatively weak, steepening
mid-level lapse rates and sufficient instability in an axis of
low level convergence associated with a lee side trough will
support the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm
development both days. According to the NBM, the best chance for
thunderstorms will be across extreme southwest Kansas Monday
and farther east near and along the Oklahoma border Tuesday
where there is a 20-40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding a
tenth of an inch. A drier pattern sets up mid-week as ridging
aloft builds northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the
Western High Plains.

Below normal temperatures continue Monday as a cooler air mass is
slow to erode behind departing surface high pressure. The NBM paints
only a 20-30% probability of temperatures climbing above 80F in
extreme southwest Kansas to a 70-80% probability of higher than 80F
in central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures return mid-week with
the NBM indicating a 70-80% probability of highs exceeding 85F in
central Kansas to 90% probability of temperatures topping 85F in
extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will track east-southeast
through southwest Kansas into central Kansas overnight, affecting
the vicinity of all TAF sites with brief periods of MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys along with strong wind gusts in excess of 50kt. Low
level stratus is then expected to develop within an east-
northeasterly upslope flow developing behind a cold front
sinking slowly southward into northern Oklahoma early Sunday
morning, resulting in possible MVFR/IFR cigs in vicinity of all
TAF sites generally after 07-09Z. East-northeast winds around
10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt developing behind the
aforementioned front are expected to persist through Sunday
afternoon as surface high pressure builds in across the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson