774
FXUS63 KDDC 310557
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather and localized flash flooding risk for tonight

- Several days of overnight convection is expected for western
  Kansas

- Warmer temperatures expected early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

18z observations show a residual cloud deck in our eastern zones
from the morning convection which produced widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall amounts roughly from a Leoti-Lakin line to St. John-
Medicine Lodge. Sunshine in our western zones into eastern
Colorado and New Mexico have destabilized the atmosphere and
updrafts and cumulus towers are showing up on satellite and
radar along an outflow boundary in northeast New Mexico and the
far western Oklahoma panhandle. An upper level shortwave is also
developing over the Colorado rockies.

Tonight two areas of convection are forecast as we will see
storms move from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas late
this afternoon and evening. While the CAPE values in the 0-3 km
range are low the mixing layer CAPE is forecast to be in the
2000-3000 J/kg range for areas from Syracuse to Liberal. Bulk
shear values will be fairly low (around 30-35 kts for the 0-6 km
shear). These areas will have the highest severe risk as pulsing
storms could see brief periods of hail up to half dollar size
and with high PW (around 1 inch) and forecast DCAPE in the
1300-1500 range we could also see some wet microburst gusts in
the 50-65 kt range. Later tonight a second wave in northeast
Colorado will develop storms in northwest Kansas and these
storms should be strong to marginally severe with mainly
localized heavy rainfall over almost the same spots that
received the higher rainfall last night. Storm motion is also
forecast to be slow at around 15 kts so localized flash flooding
will be possible from both areas of storms.

Friday storms should quickly diminish and exit after sunrise and
we should see breaks in the clouds mainly in our western zones
during the day to help destabilize the atmosphere by afternoon.
Highs should reach into the lower 80s in the west and mid to
upper 70s in the east.

Friday night with an upper level shortwave coming out of eastern
Colorado another overnight MCS is expected to move through
western Kansas. Severe risk should be less as the CAPE values
look to be around 1000 J/kg by the time the storms reach Kansas.
Rainfall once again with this overnight convection could be
locally heavy in spots with many areas receiving another 0.25
inches in general.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A fairly persistent forecast through Sunday night as we should
see a couple more rounds of overnight rain across western
Kansas. Ensembles continue to show the upper flow being mainly
zonal and with the westerlies going over the Rockies we should
continue to see a train of shortwaves moving in from eastern
Colorado in the late afternoon to evening hours. Saturday and
Sunday night both have ensembles showing a complex of storms
moving through western Kansas and 30-70% probabilities of at
least 0.1 inch of rain across the whole area Saturday night and
these probabilities along and east of highway 283 Sunday night.
Severe threat will be higher on Saturday as it looks like the
storms will form along the Kansas-Colorado border in the late
afternoon after the destabilization from the heating of the day
and a shortwave moving through.

Rain chances diminish early next week as a ridge overtakes much
of the desert southwest and warmer air will overspread the
central and southern plains. Long term models are showing highs
in the lower 90s with the box and whisker plots showing a range
that would include upper 90 potential for highs from Monday
through Wednesday. We likely won`t get that warm with the wet
ground however with the ample lower level moisture we could see
heat index values easily into the upper 90s to lower 100s. By
next Wednesday the ensembles are showing a stronger longwave
trough moving into the northern plains which should bring cooler
air to our region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage near a mid
level baroclinic zone/700md deformation zone that extended from
near Garden City and Dodge City through 09Z this Friday morning.
These sorms will then slowly move southeast through the predawn
hours. BUFR soundings and guidance suggest ceilings will remain
in the 3000 to 8000 ft AGL range overnight. However, these low
VFR ceilings may briefly drop to 1000 to 2000 ft AGL between 10Z
and 14Z Friday, mainly around Dodge City and Hays. The latest
ceiling probabilities indicate a 30-60% chance of this
occurring. After 14Z the ceilings will gradually improve as
southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots develop by 18Z. Another round
of thunderstorms is expected tonight, moving from eastern
Colorado into southwest Kansas. The latest CAMS has these storms
approaching the Garden City and Liberal areas after 03Z
Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert