272
FXUS63 KDDC 311108
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible each day though
  the weekend period.

- Hail up to 1 inch, wind gusts up to 60 mph and locally heavy
  rainfall possible this evening and Saturday, mainly west of
  highway 83.

- There is greater than a 65 percent chance that the highs today
  will be less than 82 degrees. This looks like it will be the
  coolest day next week.

- The extended period of rainfall chances will end early next
  week with highs in the 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Thunderstorms weakening across southwest Kansas as of 2 AM this
morning and are expected to end by early Friday morning as the
enhanced lift from the right entrance region of the upper level
jet moves northeast toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. As
these storms taper off, skies will clear as a surface
boundary/cold front becomes stationary from southeast Colorado
into northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. North of this
boundary, short term models are in good agreement, showing a
2-3C cooldown in the boundary layer and 850 mb temperatures.
Given this and the latest guidance, it appears that most
locations across southwest Kansas will struggle to warm much
higher than 82 degrees today, even with full sun. There is a
+65% chance for highs today to be below 82 degrees across all of
southwest Kansas. Enjoy today if you can, as it will be the
coolest of the next 10 days.

The surface boundary mentioned above will become stationary
over eastern Colorado by late day and then will remain in place
through the end of the weekend period. The combination of low
level forcing developing along this boundary each day plus
afternoon heating will likely produce some late day
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. This is especially true
if any subtle upper wave embedded in the westerly flow move out
of the Rockies and into the West central High Plains during the
same time period. For this evening and Saturday evening the 03Z
SREF highlights mainly eastern Colorado as the area where 0-6
km shear and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates will be most favorable
for severe thunderstorm. Similar to the past few days, the main
hazards from any storm that does develop will be strong gusty
winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. As these strong to
severe thunderstorms move into far southwest Kansas by evening,
they are expected to weaken due to the loss of daytime heating.
However, a few stronger storms may still be capable of
persisting for several hours after sunset, especially west of
Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The extended period of rainfall chances over the weekend will
end early next week as warmer mid level temperatures spread
east into western Kansas, and an upper level ridge builds into
the Rockies and western High Plains. Ensemble clusters are in
generally good agreement with this trend and the largest
discrepancy early next week is how warm it will get. It really
doesn`t matter which solution you prefer next week because it
will feel like summer as temperatures climb into the 90s, with
the afternoon heat index reaching the upper 90s in some areas.
There will be a cold frontal passage mid week which will briefly
stall out the warmup but what cool air that does return
Wednesday will quickly erode by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A period of low clouds (below 1000 ft AGL) will be possible
through 15Z today at Dodge City and Hays as light southeast
winds increase to 10 to 15 knots. In the Hays area, in addition
to the low clouds, there will be a chance for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. These clouds and thunderstorms will
give way to clearing skies between 15Z and 18Z as an upper-level
disturbance crosses western Kansas. After sunset, scattered
thunderstorms that developed over eastern Colorado earlier in
the day will move across southwest Kansas. Based on the majority
of the CAMS this morning, these thunderstorms will cross the
Garden City and Liberal areas between 03Z and 06Z Saturday.
Between 06Z and 09Z, these storms will cross the Dodge City and
Hays areas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert