600
FXUS63 KDDC 030705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical early summer weather for the next several days, with
  seasonably hot afternoons and little chance of rainfall.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible southeast of Dodge City
  Monday afternoon and evening.

- Some of the hottest temperatures so far in 2024 expected
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thunderstorms struggled to maintain their identity Sunday evening,
in response to a warm capping inversion. Midnight radar and
satellite imagery showed another thunderstorm complex developing
west of Scott City, and 00z ARW/NAM latch onto this feature and
move it southeastward through sunrise. These elevated storms
will pose a risk for at least marginally severe hail and wind
gusts through sunrise Monday, and have coordinated severe
thunderstorm watch #383 with SPC. Maintained pops through
sunrise, with the expectation of the MCS tracking southeast.

Winds will be much weaker on Monday, with a much more diffuse
pressure gradient. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be
several degrees above normal for early June, in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. 00z NAM once again develops extreme instability
across southeast zones Monday afternoon, with MU CAPE as high as
5000 J/kg, given dewpoints in the upper 60s. Forcing for
initiation is again very subtle, and thunderstorms will again
struggle to develop/sustain, and most if not all activity should
be east/southeast of SW KS. This stated, any updraft that can
establish in the extreme instability will be capable of 2-3 inch
diameter hail, and a marginal 5% risk for hail/wind for the
southeast zones from SPC is conditionally warranted. Pops for
the southeast zones are necessarily very low, in the slight
chance category (<25%). Although pops are low, noticed 00z ECMWF
QPF fields strongly suggest convective initiation along the
DDC/ICT CWA border by 7 pm Monday, and severe/wind hail
potential will need to be monitored in the extreme instability.

The temperature regime changes little Monday night through
Tuesday, with more sunrise temperatures in the lower to mid
60s, and afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Strong closed cyclone and shortwave trough centered over
Saskatchewan 7 am Tuesday will rotate into the northern/central
plains 7 pm Tuesday. An associated cold front and
north/northeast wind shift is expected Tuesday and opted to
follow the 90%ile of the NBM for these post frontal winds, with
gusts near 30 mph, which is similar to 00z MAV guidance. We are
entering the time of year when cold fronts have less and less
cohesion and impact, and no cold advection is expected behind
this boundary. As such, temperatures Tuesday will mirror those
of Monday. Any thunderstorms associated with this cold front and
trough passage are expected to remain northeast of SW KS, and
kept all grids dry (pops < 15%).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

All models continue to show strong warming, with strong height
and thickness increases, on Wednesday, delivering the hottest
day of the young summer season so far. The subtropical midlevel
anticyclone builds strongly northward into New Mexico, at near
592 dm strength 7 pm Wednesday. A gentle SWly downslope
compression is also expected, which when combined with 850 mb
temperatures warming into the upper 20s C, will warm all
locations easily into the mid 90s. 00z GEFS ensemble members
show the probability of max temperature > 90 is well over 90%
Wednesday, with a 10% probability of reaching 100 in the favored
Red Hills southeast of DDC. Strong subsidence Wednesday for few
if any clouds.

Upper high will only get stronger Thursday, near 594 dm over
northern New Mexico, with 500 mb heights > 590 dm over SW KS.
This would normally translate into even hotter temperatures near
100, but a weak cold frontal passage and associated easterly
wind components will keep afternoon temperatures capped in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. With strong capping aloft, the
probability of rainfall with this frontal passage is very low.

Friday through Sunday, 592-593 dm upper high is still very well
established 7 am Friday, but models consistently show the upper
high and midlevel heights weakening, and the reintroduction of
shower and thunderstorm chances, into next weekend. NBM`s chance
category pops match EPS trends in measurable QPF probability,
and these were accepted, along with a moderation of afternoon
temperatures back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Update: Another MCS convective complex has organized west of
GCK as of 07z Mon, and will track southeast through 12z Mon.
Update TAFs to include a convective TEMPO group at GCK, with
more likely needed at DDC before 12z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner