741
FXUS63 KDDC 151900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect hot afternoons with strong south winds each day,
  Saturday through Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
  evening, with marginally severe wind and/or hail possible.

- A cold front is expected to bring cooler afternoons and
  increased shower and thunderstorm coverage at midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A weak shortwave trough was crossing SW KS at midday, with
associated lift generating broken midlevel clouds, and a few
showers and thunderstorms. Additional scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon through this evening, as
strong south winds maintain modest instability. CAM consensus
suggests coverage will favor the central/eastern zones through
evening, and that is how the chance category pops were arranged.
Moderate bouyancy and weak shear will keep storms rather
disorganized, but certainly some marginally severe wind/hail are
probable with the strongest cells through early evening, per SPC
marginal 5% wind/hail probability. South winds will gust to
near 35 mph this afternoon, with afternoon temperatures largely
in the lower 90s.

Elevated south winds will provide a warm early summer night
tonight, with all locations easily remaining in the 60s through
sunrise Sunday.

All models show strong warming Sunday, with a net warming of
5-6C at 850 mb over Saturday, supporting afternoon temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s. Given recent rainfall and a lack of
more pronounced SWly downslope, most locations will remain below
100 Sunday. South winds will again be strong; included the
90%ile of the NBM for the wind grids, with 20-30 mph winds
common. 990 mb low pressure near Denver will support a pressure
gradient supportive of 40 mph gusts. Most of Sunday will be dry
for most locations. 12z NAM develops strong instability Sunday
afternoon with MUCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg, but a triggering
mechanism is less than obvious. NAM suggests moisture
convergence along the surface trough/dryline may be sufficient
for initiation, favoring the western zones, but kept pops
necessarily now, near 20%, for now.

Synoptic longwave pattern changes little over North America
Monday and Tuesday, with broad troughing over the northern
Rockies, and very strong midlevel high pressure over the eastern
US. Strong southerly winds and moisture transport from the Gulf
of Mexico will be maintained. With instability and a dryline or
surface trough available, at least isolated thunderstorms are
probable at peak heating both Monday and Tuesday. Dewpoints will
easily hold in the 60s east of the dryline (along the KS/CO
border) each afternoon, supporting moderate to strong
instability, but forcing is nebulous, will rely on the
mesoscale, and is impossible to finetune this far out. This
synoptic pattern also favors strong to intense south winds, with
pressure gradients on Monday in particular supporting gusts as
high as 50 mph. Several 12z GEFS members and 12z GFS show
surface low pressure as low as 982 mb near Denver Monday
afternoon, resulting in a mslp gradient of near 15 mb across the
DDC CWA. Some of this stronger guidance suggests a high wind
watch may be required Monday afternoon/evening. Continued to
use the 90%ile of the NBM for these wind/wind gust grids. South
winds are expected to reach their peak intensity Monday, and
with the excellent mixing and a hot well mixed boundary layer,
temperatures will soar through the 90s Monday afternoon.

Models to varying degrees depict a cold front making progress
southward into/through Kansas Tuesday, which will 1) begin a
cooling trend in afternoon temperatures, 2) decrease the
magnitude of the winds, and 3) improve shower and thunderstorm
coverage. NBM shows a relative max in POPs on Tuesday night, and
these were retained, when MCS development is most probable with
the frontal boundary in the vicinity. 12z GEFS probability of
QPF > 0.10 inch is already as high as 80% during this favored
Tuesday night timeframe, and 12z MEX pops are already well into
the likely category. Behind this cold front and thunderstorm
complex, cooler afternoon temperatures in the 70s are expected
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period, outside of any
convective impacts. Strong S/SW winds are expected at all
airports through 00z Sun, gusting 30-32 kts. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected 21z Sat - 06z Sun. Coverage will be
limited, and have low confidence of direct impacts at any
airport. As such, only included a VCTS/CB mention at DDC/HYS
from 00-03z Sun for now. South winds will diminish some at
sunset, but remain elevated through 12z Sun.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner