939
FXUS63 KDDC 151058
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
558 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms later in the day
  today with thunderstorm coverage expected to be isolated to
  widely scattered in nature.

- Windy to very windy today through Monday and perhaps into
  Tuesday with 25 to 35 mph sustained winds common, especially
  Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- Increasing precipitation chances Tuesday-Wednesday as the next
  cold front pushes south into Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis overlay revealed a
mid-tropospheric shortwave trough centered over far eastern
Colorado. This small shortwave trough was within a larger scale,
broad ridge axis centered across the north central CONUS. A
mesoscale convective system (MCS) tied to this disturbance was over
far eastern Nebraska into north central Kansas, continuing to move
away from our southwest Kansas region.

Several convection-allowing models are showing weak redevelopment of
showers/isolated thunderstorms around daybreak or shortly
thereafter, seemingly tied to broad, rather weak
convergence/deformation of the flow field around 700mb. We pulled
back a bit on the morning POPs, limiting them to 20 percent. Not too
long after sunrise, south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to
25 mph as the MSLP gradient tightens east of a southwest to
northeast oriented leeside trough. Later in the day, there will
likely be enough low level convergence along this trough axis to
initiate surface-based convection. The remnants of last night`s
shortwave trough will be around, however jet streak dynamics and
very weak thermal advections in the lower troposphere will limit
coverage and intensity of thunderstorm activity later in the
afternoon, thus the reason the latest SWODY1 outlook from SPC keeps
our forecast area in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk. Since the forecast
coverage will be more isolated/widely scattered in nature, there
will be enough of a CAPE/Shear combination to support at least a
marginal supercell or two capable of large hail, but the probability
of any significant severe reports is extremely low.

On Sunday, the larger scale pattern will transition to one of broad
southwest flow aloft as a large cyclonically-curved jet enters the
Pacific Northwest region. This pattern will favor deep leeside
troughing and a tight pressure gradient across much of the Great
Plains, including southwest Kansas. The result will be wind, wind,
and more wind. Sunday and Monday both are forecast to be windy to
very windy with sustained south to southwest winds 20 to 35 mph
gusting to 45 mph at times, particularly in the afternoon. Neither
of these days will be favored for any thunderstorm activity, so the
forecast will remain dry. We will be heating back up again, though,
with afternoon highs upper 90s to around 100 across the western half
of the forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures will not be that high,
so resulting Heat Index values will be at or only slightly above the
actual air temperature.

As we head deeper into the week, thunderstorm chances increase by
late Tuesday/Tuesday Night as a cold front pushes south into Kansas.
Pretty good model consensus on this front and thunderstorm
development along it has resulted in NBM POPs increasing to 30 to 45
percent for the Tuesday Night period. This front will likely stall
out near southwest Kansas Wednesday which would keep precipitation
chances in the forecast through Wednesday Night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KHYS, KDDC, and
KGCK. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR conditions to continue
through early Sunday. Light southerly winds through mid-morning
are expected to turn more southwesterly while increasing 15 to
25 with gusts up to 30kt generally after 15-17Z as a lee side
trough of low pressure strengthens in extreme eastern Colorado.
Winds will subside this evening with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson