766
FXUS63 KDDC 181002
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk this afternoon with large hail, damaging
  winds, and an isolated tornado possible (mainly landspouts if
  they occur)

- Flash flooding risk later tonight through Wednesday with 1-3
  inches of rain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

07z observations and upper air analysis shows a large longwave
trough over the western CONUS leading to southwest winds aloft
in the central plains. At the surface a 983-985 mb low is
located from northeast Colorado through north central Nebraska
leading to strong surface to 850 mb winds and with the well
mixed layer temperatures have only fallen into the upper 70s.

For today as another 700 mb shortwave moves over the Colorado
Rockies a surface low will develop and move into northwest
Kansas by early this afternoon. As the 500 mb longwave trough
moves into the northern plains the leading edge of colder air
will track into northwest Kansas by the noon hour. This cold
front and upper level wave will set the stage for thunderstorms
to develop starting in north central Kansas and then extending
south and westward along the front by sunset. With the upper
level winds oriented parallel to the front the storms will grow
upscale and become linear quickly and there is high confidence
the storms will train along the front and start dumping heavy
rain roughly along an Elkhart to Hays line. With CAPE values in
the 2000-3000 J/kg range and 0-6 km bulk shear values at 30-40
kts and CAMs showing some embedded supercells in the line...hail
up to 2 inches in diameter and 60 mph winds are possible. The
storms will be high based so tornado risk will be low...however
given that a strong surface cold front and lower level shear
will be high we can`t rule out the possibility of some brief
landspouts with the storms.

Tonight through Wednesday the risk will turn more towards the
flash flooding. With the cold front likely to become stationary
and the upper level winds out of the southwest providing more
700 mb shortwaves to provide lift...we could see a widespread
area of rain and storms with little to no movement and training
over the same areas through much of Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Short term models have some variance north or south
of where the frontal boundary will be but there is probabilities
(around 20%) of receiving 3 inches or more from the storms and
high probabilities (70-80%) of 1-2 inches of rain. The location
of the rain will be concentrated between the highway 50 and I-70
corridors. This combined with these areas receiving 3-6 inches
of rain earlier in the month and having higher soil
moisture...leads to an increased risk of localized flash
flooding and a watch is issued for these areas. Wednesday will
also be cool with clouds and periodic rain and storms all day
that highs could only be in the 70s to around 80.

Rain should end by Thursday as ensemble upper level air patterns
have a large high over the southeast US and the upper level
trough in the northern plains exiting. This southerly flow
in the boundary layer should push the stationary front north as
a warm front and take the better lift into the northern plains.
Long term ensembles are hinting at the return of hotter
temperatures and NBM forecast output is responding in kind with
highs around 100 by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong winds will continue through the first half of the time
period with sustained winds at 20-30 kts and gusts 40 kts or
greater at times. Winds should slightly diminish after 06Z. By
late afternoon a cold front will enter into northwest and north
central Kansas and we should see a line of thunderstorms develop
starting around HYS at 21Z and then into the GCK and DDC areas
around 00Z. These storms could contain gusty winds and downpours
from heavy rainfall. VFR flight category for the most part for
all terminals however as the cloud cover increases with the
storm coverage we will likely be in MVFR flight category
between 03-06Z for GCK, HYS, and DDC and nearly IFR category
around 12Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro