451
FXUS63 KDDC 141725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorms tonight with
  main risk being damaging straight line winds 65+ mph. Greatest
  risk will be across far west central Kansas.

- Secondary round of storms very early Saturday morning farther
  south, but these storms will likely be sub-severe.

- Yet a third round (or perhaps a loose continuation of the
  Saturday morning round) later in the day Saturday with
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms across
  southwest, central, and south central Kansas.

- Hot and windy weather Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday
  with daily highs upper 90s to perhaps lower 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The overnight water vapor imagery and RAP analysis revealed a fairly
typical synoptic setting characterized by dominant polar jet stream
positioned well to our north. The polar jet up north had a fairly
high zonal index (not very amplified), however a rather formidable
upper low was spinning across the Desert Southwest region, well to
the south of the main polar jet, and this feature will play a
significant role in our sensible weather later on today and tonight,
extending in to Saturday.

Last night`s small mesoscale convective system (MCS) decayed across
Oklahoma late last night, leaving behind a rather nebulous MSLP and
surface wind field. The MSLP and low level flow field will begin to
respond to the approaching Southwest Low later on today with
southeast winds increasing through the day. The increased easterly
low level momentum will increase low level moisture advection back
into western Kansas. The axis of greatest low level moisture, marked
by upper 60s to around 70F dewpoints, will shift north through the
day, but there is still some uncertainty regarding how far north the
low level Theta-E axis will shift into west central/northwest Kansas
by mid to late afternoon when surface-based convection initiates
across eastern Colorado. The 00Z run of the HREF shows the best
CAPE+Shear parameter space (ex: joint probs of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg and
0-6km Bulk Shear Magnitude > 30 knots greater than 40%) lifting
north from west central KS into northwestern Kansas and southwestern
Nebraska late in the day, which also coincides with best mid-
tropospheric potential vorticity advection late in the day from east
central Colorado into northwest Kansas. All of the aforementioned is
the reason why latest SPC SWODY1 has greatest severe wx outlook
probs centered just north of our forecast area. That said, the
southern periphery of the 15% + "hatched" thunderstorm wind outlook
does include our far northwestern area of responsibility from
roughly Syracuse to Scott City to WaKeeney.

As far as the official forecast goes, POPs have been updated with 60-
70% out west toward Colorado border tapering off to 20 to 30%
southeast of a Meade to Dodge City to Larned line...and even less
than that across the Red Hills region. The latest timing of the
severe event later on today and tonight looks to be a little later
in the evening that what we saw last evening with the expected line
of strong/severe storms entering the far west 23-24Z (6-7 PM CDT),
the U83 corridor around 8 or 9 PM and later than that points farther
east should the line of storms hold together after sunset this far
south. Should the main evening MCS lift northeast and miss much of
our central/southern counties, there will be another opportunity
early Saturday morning as another jet streak interacts with a
secondary axis of low level moisture advection just to the south of
southwest Kansas in the 09-15Z Saturday morning time frame.

By afternoon Saturday after a period of insolation works on the
boundary layer, a southwest to northeast axis of remnant moisture
and low level convergence in vicinity of (a) remaining outflow
boundary(ies) and mid level weakness/troughing will likely result in
another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms within or very
near our forecast area, hence widespread 30 to 40 POPs late in the
day Saturday.

Going late into the weekend into next week, broad southwesterly flow
aloft will extend from much of the western CONUS out across the
northern Great Plains, which will induce fairly deep leeside
troughing and subsequent strong southerly winds/hotter temperature.
Sunday and Monday look particularly hot with widespread upper 90s to
lower 100s, especially along/west of U283 to the Colorado line. By
mid-week, model trends (deterministic and ensemble systems) suggest
a polar front reaching Kansas which will likely increase our
thunderstorm chances once again, along with a pullback in
temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Another
round of thunderstorms is expected to roll out of eastern CO
this evening, however how far east this complex reaches before
decaying is uncertain, so only VCTS was included in the TAFs.
Otherwise, southeast winds aoa 12 kts will trend to more
southwesterly with time, and increase into the 15-20 kt range
with gusts up to 30 kts shortly after sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Springer