Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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952 FXUS63 KDDC 272359 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 659 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several opportunity for rain upcoming this week. - CSU-MLP is showing some decent signs of severe weather potential on Thursday. - Risk of flash flooding is also increasing mainly Thursday night into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 18z observations show quiet weather conditions across the central plains with a few fair weather cumulus clouds forming in the far southwestern parts of Kansas. At the surface we have light and variable winds with a weak surface low developing in southeast Colorado. In the upper levels we have mainly northwest flow with a developing shortwave going over the front range of the Rockies. Tonight we will have two areas of interest when it comes to rain/storm development and both will be along weak frontal boundaries. One will be along the I-70 corridor extending southeast to central Kansas and the other will be in the northwest Texas panhandle to areas just south of Medicine Lodge. An upper level shortwave will move out of southeast Colorado into western Kansas after midnight and will interact with mainly the northern frontal boundary to produce a line of showers and storms from WaKeeney to Hutchinson. A second area of storms could develop along the southern front as a modest low level jet develops in the Texas panhandle and this could lead to some spotty thunderstorms mainly along and west of highway 83. POPs for the most part will be kept under 40% due to the uncertainty of where the front/shortwave will line up but it does look like portions of southwest Kansas should see some rain tonight. Tuesday we should see the morning convection subside by midday and with some diurnal heating and instability combining with the next 700 mb shortwave moving into northwest Kansas providing the lift another round of scattered thunderstorms should develop in eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. 3 km NAM/HRRR/and FV3 have been the most aggressive CAMs at this point showing a MCS complex moving from southeast Colorado into western Kansas. SPC has responded by putting areas along and south of highway 50 in a day 2 marginal risk for severe weather. We should see decent severe weather parameters with around 2000 J/kg CAPE and 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. This would support gusty winds and large hail. Tuesday night the ongoing storms should weaken through the night as 850 mb winds aren`t expected to stay strong enough to keep the complex going past highway 283 and the upper level lift will also weaken through the night. We will be left with mainly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A wet stretch of weather is upcoming in the long term with many signals showing much of southwest Kansas receiving over 0.5 inch of rain from Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday to start the day we should see some sunshine and subsidence from the dying thunderstorm activity Tuesday night. Southeast winds should bring in return moisture flow and sunshine will help to destabilize the atmosphere. By late in the day a shortwave will move in from the west and a line of showers and storms will develop along the Kansas-Colorado border and move eastward through the night. Ensemble mean QPF forecast for rain puts widespread 0.1-0.3 inch of rain across all of southwest Kansas and POPs are in the chance category (40-50%). Severe parameters of CAPE and bulk shear are fairly low for this time of year (1000 J/kg of CAPE, 20 kt 0-6 km bulk shear) so the storms should stay below severe limits at this point. Thursday will have more of a severe weather and possible flash flooding risk. Weather setup should be similar with departing storms in the morning, some sun and moisture return in the afternoon, and a shortwave coming out of eastern Colorado igniting a line of storms. Many ensemble models are painting greater than 0.5 inch of rain especially along and east of highway 283 and the mean QPF in the Euro and GEFS ensembles is showing over 1 inch of rain. This confidence is also supported by PWAT values being forecast at 1-1.25 inches. NBM forecast of likely POPs along and east of highway 283 for Thursday night is justified. CAPE values are forecast to be higher at 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts which would support storms having large hail and gusty wind potential. CSU-MLP has 30% day 4 severe probability from the Colorado border to highway 83 and it wouldn`t surprise me if SPC puts out a risk with the next update for day 3. The rest of the long term will have continued storm chances with isolated to scattered storms developing as ensembles keep the upper level flow mainly west to southwest with shortwaves coming over the Rockies and interacting in the central plains during the afternoon and evening hours. This stretch should help to make a dent in the drought. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light winds will become east to southeast at 10-15 kts by 18z as weak surface low pressure forms on the southern high plains. There is only a small chance of thunderstorms between 09z and 15z as a weak low level jet transports low level moisture northward. Thunderstorms may move into western Kansas from Colorado after the end of the TAF period but will probably stay west of KLBL and KGCK. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Finch