058
FXUS63 KDDC 291900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunities for rain over the next few days

- Risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding on
  Thursday

- Much warmer temperatures expected next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

18z observations show a warm frontal boundary across central
Kansas with a surface high located in northeast New Mexico. An
upper level ridge is moving through the southern Rockies with a
developing shortwave and afternoon storms in the Colorado
Rockies.

For tonight CAM models have been pretty consistent with storms
developing both in northeast and southeast Colorado as the
shortwave ejects into those areas by late afternoon. The line of
storms in southeast Colorado isn`t expected to reach Kansas
until around 7pm and the northern line will reach southwest
Kansas after midnight. Highest CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg
will be just along and west of the Colorado border and the CAPE
values fall quickly as you go east into Kansas. This would
reflect the storms starting out strong in Colorado and then
gradually weakening to more general storms as they move into
Kansas tonight. Marginal risk of severe weather is in place
mainly for areas along and west of highway 283 with some hail
bigger than quarters and 60 mph wind gust threats. The overnight
storms will likely have a higher threat of localized heavy
rainfall as some areas could receive over 0.50 inch of rain in a
short amount of time especially between the highway 83 and 281
corridors.

Thursday as the shortwave propagates into central Kansas we
should rain chances decrease through the late morning but it
does look like the clouds should hang around for most of the day
in areas along and east of highway 83. West of 83 we should see
more sunshine and combined with low level moisture we should see
the atmosphere destabilize during the afternoon. Depending on
where the outflow boundary is left from Wednesday night`s
convection we should see a frontal boundary somewhere in the
highway 54-56 corridors ignite a round of storms as a 700 mb
shortwave moves into western Kansas by 21-00Z. CAPE values are
forecast to be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range for the areas that
receive sun with 25-30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Severe threat of
large hail and damaging winds will be on the table again
especially for areas along and west of highway 83.

Thursday night with weak flow aloft and the stationary outflow
boundary we are seeing a setup which could favor some localized
flash flooding. PWAT values over 1 inch and models forecast
bunkers motion of 10 kts or less is suggesting storms will have
a lot of moisture and very little movement. There is a slight
risk of flash flooding for all of southwest Kansas and high
probabilities (50-70%) of 1 inch or more of rain east of a
Liberal to WaKeeney line. While the ground can take a soaking
rain with these thunderstorms we could certainly see 1-2 inch
per hour rain rates and areas prone to flash flooding will be at
higher risk during the night.




&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night as
the disturbance mentioned in the short term moves through the area.
Ensemble models suggest that this will be when precipitation
amounts will be the most with some of the models showing over an
inch of rain in some places. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday
and Saturday as a few more disturbances move through the area.
However these don`t look to be a pronounce as Thursday. The
remainder of the long term forecast looks dry with the exception of
central Kansas where afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each
day. Winds throughout the long term forecast will generally be from
a southerly direction. As for temperatures, highs Friday will start
out in the 70s with around 80 degrees across far southwestern
Kansas. Highs then reach into the 80s Saturday with upper 80s to low
90s Sunday into Monday. Lows will start out in the 50s with low 60s
returning by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern
Colorado late this afternoon and early evening and move through
western Kansas during the late evening and overnight hours.
Storms around the LBL and GCK terminals will be in the 01-10Z
time frame, DDC in the 02-13Z timeframe and HYS in the 05-15Z
time frame. With the storms we could see brief drops in
visibility with heavier rains and higher wind gusts. After the
storms pass the residual cloud deck will lead to a 50%
probability of at least MVFR flight category from 12-18Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro