648
FXUS63 KDDC 271903
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunity for rain upcoming this week.

- CSU-MLP is showing some decent signs of severe weather
  potential on Thursday.

- Risk of flash flooding is also increasing mainly Thursday
  night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

18z observations show quiet weather conditions across the
central plains with a few fair weather cumulus clouds foring in
the far southwestern parts of Kansas. At the surface we have
light and variable winds with a weak surface low developing in
southeast Colorado. In the upper levels we have mainly northwest
flow with a developing shortwave going over the front range of
the Rockies.

Tonight we will have two areas of interest when it comes to
rain/storm development and both will be along weak frontal
boundaries. One will be along the I-70 corridor extending
southeast to central Kansas and the other will be in the
northwest Texas panhandle to areas just south of Medicine Lodge.
An upper level shortwave will move out of southeast Colorado
into western Kansas after midnight and will interact with mainly
the northern frontal boundary to produce a line of showers and
storms from WaKeeney to Hutchinson. A second area of storms
could develop along the southern front as a modest low level jet
develops in the Texas panhandle and this could lead to some
spotty thunderstorms mainly along and west of highway 83. POPs
for the most part will be kept under 40% due to the uncertainty
of where the front/shortwave will line up but it does look like
portions of southwest Kansas should see some rain tonight.

Tuesday we should see the morning convection subside by midday
and with some diurnal heating and instability combining with the
next 700 mb shortwave moving into northwest Kansas providing the
lift another round of scattered thunderstorms should develop in
eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas by late afternoon
and early evening. 3 km NAM/HRRR/and FV3 have been the most
aggressive CAMs at this point showing a MCS complex moving from
southeast Colorado into western Kansas. SPC has responded by
putting areas along and south of highway 50 in a day 2 marginal
risk for severe weather. We should see decent severe weather
parameters with around 2000 J/kg CAPE and 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk
shear. This would support gusty winds and large hail.

Tuesday night the ongoing storms should weaken through the night
as 850 mb winds aren`t expected to stay strong enough to keep
the complex going past highway 283 and the upper level lift will
also weaken through the night. We will be left with mainly
cloudy skies and overnight lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Ensemble models continue to bring a chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms to western Kansas through the long term forecast. This
is due to an upper level ridge over the Rockies Tuesday to move over
the Plains Wednesday into this weekend.  Meanwhile, an upper level
long wave trough will dig into the western United States, ejecting
shortwaves towards the plains. Moisture in the lower levels will
continue to pool across the area during this time frame with
continued southeast winds each day. Being the peak of the severe
season there could be a few days where severe weather will be
possible. Confidence is low on which days will bring the highest
risk. Chances of measurable precipitation looks to be the
highest across central Kansas with lesser amounts as you head
west. As of now, ensembles show over 60 percent chance of 0.42
inches of rain or more across central Kansas Friday. As for
temperatures, highs will generally be in the upper 70s into the
80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In general we should see VFR flight category and winds under 15
kts for all terminals during the time period. Late tonight
(after 09Z) a weak frontal boundary and upper level disturbance
could lead to some scattered thunderstorms mainly around DDC and
HYS (20-30% chance of storms) between 09-15Z. If storms do form
or move in close proximity to the terminals this could lead to
cloud ceilings falling into the MVFR category.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro