599
FXUS63 KDDC 271015
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through midnight

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
  through this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tonight
with high pressure being the dominate feature across the area. Winds
will be light and variable through this evening with highs ranging
from the low 80s along the I-70 corridor with upper 80s elsewhere.
There is less than a 20 percent chance of temperatures rising over
90 degrees across south central Kansas. Winds then shift to an
easterly direction overnight with increased cloud cover across
our western zones. Some light showers or embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across far western Kansas after midnight, but
no severe weather is expected. Lows tonight will dip into the
mid to upper 50s with around 60 degrees across south central
Kansas.

Cloudiness continues to increase in coverage Tuesday as a weak
disturbance moves over the area. Rain chances increase across the
remainder of the forecast area as the day progresses. A few rumbles
of thunders will be possible but no severe weather is expected.
Winds will start out from an easterly direction, then shift to more
of a southeasterly direction by the afternoon. Highs tomorrow
look to reach into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Ensemble models continue to bring a chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms to western Kansas through the long term forecast. This
is due to an upper level ridge over the Rockies Tuesday to move over
the Plains Wednesday into this weekend.  Meanwhile, an upper level
long wave trough will dig into the western United States, ejecting
shortwaves towards the plains. Moisture in the lower levels will
continue to pool across the area during this time frame with
continued southeast winds each day. Being the peak of the severe
season there could be a few days where severe weather will be
possible. Confidence is low on which days will bring the highest
risk. Chances of measurable precipitation looks to be the
highest across central Kansas with lesser amounts as you head
west. As of now, ensembles show over 60 percent chance of 0.42
inches of rain or more across central Kansas Friday. As for
temperatures, highs will generally be in the upper 70s into the
80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will be light and variable.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42