Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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033 FXUS63 KDDC 290753 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 253 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop again across eastern Colorado this afternoon and trek into western Kansas this evening. A few cloud be strong to severe along the KS/CO border - Another disturbance will move through the area Thursday afternoon/evening bringing scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds - Thunderstorm chances continue Friday into Saturday, then be confined to central Kansas Sunday into the first part of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 An upper level ridge will move over the Plains during the short term forecast with an upper level long wave trough west of the area. A series of shortwaves will eject from the base of this trough and into the Plains. Winds at the surface will continue to be from a south to southeasterly direction through tomorrow advecting moisture from the south. Expect a few mid level clouds throughout the day with an increase in cloudiness this evening into the overnight period. Another round of thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern Colorado this afternoon and trek into far western Kansas this evening. A few of these storms in the early evening could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. These storms then weaken as they head to the east overnight. These storms should be confined to central Kansas by Thursday morning with the remainder of the day being partly cloudy and dry. However, yet another disturbance is expected to move into the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night bringing another chance of precipitation and storms. SPC currently depicts a slight risk across much of the CWA Thursday afternoon/evening. As for temperatures, highs today look to only reach around 80 degrees with lows tonight reaching around 60 degrees. Highs tomorrow look to range form the mid 70s along the I-70 corridor with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night as the disturbance mentioned in the short term moves through the area. Ensemble models suggest that this will be when precipitation amounts will be the most with some of the models showing over an inch of rain in some places. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday and Saturday as a few more disturbances move through the area. However these don`t look to be a pronounce as Thursday. The remainder of the long term forecast looks dry with the exception of central Kansas where afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds throughout the long term forecast will generally be from a southerly direction. As for temperatures, highs Friday will start out in the 70s with around 80 degrees across far southwestern Kansas. Highs then reach into the 80s Saturday with upper 80s to low 90s Sunday into Monday. Lows will start out in the 50s with low 60s returning by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with scattered mid level cloudiness. Winds will generally be from a southelry direction, gusting to above 20 knots this afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Hovorka_42