151
FXUS63 KDDC 271943
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
243 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunity for rain upcoming this week.

- CSU-MLP is showing some decent signs of severe weather
  potential on Thursday.

- Risk of flash flooding is also increasing mainly Thursday
  night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

18z observations show quiet weather conditions across the
central plains with a few fair weather cumulus clouds forming
in the far southwestern parts of Kansas. At the surface we have
light and variable winds with a weak surface low developing in
southeast Colorado. In the upper levels we have mainly northwest
flow with a developing shortwave going over the front range of
the Rockies.

Tonight we will have two areas of interest when it comes to
rain/storm development and both will be along weak frontal
boundaries. One will be along the I-70 corridor extending
southeast to central Kansas and the other will be in the
northwest Texas panhandle to areas just south of Medicine Lodge.
An upper level shortwave will move out of southeast Colorado
into western Kansas after midnight and will interact with mainly
the northern frontal boundary to produce a line of showers and
storms from WaKeeney to Hutchinson. A second area of storms
could develop along the southern front as a modest low level jet
develops in the Texas panhandle and this could lead to some
spotty thunderstorms mainly along and west of highway 83. POPs
for the most part will be kept under 40% due to the uncertainty
of where the front/shortwave will line up but it does look like
portions of southwest Kansas should see some rain tonight.

Tuesday we should see the morning convection subside by midday
and with some diurnal heating and instability combining with the
next 700 mb shortwave moving into northwest Kansas providing the
lift another round of scattered thunderstorms should develop in
eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas by late afternoon
and early evening. 3 km NAM/HRRR/and FV3 have been the most
aggressive CAMs at this point showing a MCS complex moving from
southeast Colorado into western Kansas. SPC has responded by
putting areas along and south of highway 50 in a day 2 marginal
risk for severe weather. We should see decent severe weather
parameters with around 2000 J/kg CAPE and 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk
shear. This would support gusty winds and large hail.

Tuesday night the ongoing storms should weaken through the night
as 850 mb winds aren`t expected to stay strong enough to keep
the complex going past highway 283 and the upper level lift will
also weaken through the night. We will be left with mainly
cloudy skies and overnight lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A wet stretch of weather is upcoming in the long term with many
signals showing much of southwest Kansas receiving over 0.5
inch of rain from Wednesday through Friday.

Wednesday to start the day we should see some sunshine and
subsidence from the dying thunderstorm activity Tuesday night.
Southeast winds should bring in return moisture flow and
sunshine will help to destabilize the atmosphere. By late in the
day a shortwave will move in from the west and a line of showers
and storms will develop along the Kansas-Colorado border and
move eastward through the night. Ensemble mean QPF forecast for
rain puts widespread 0.1-0.3 inch of rain across all of
southwest Kansas and POPs are in the chance category (40-50%).
Severe parameters of CAPE and bulk shear are fairly low for this
time of year (1000 J/kg of CAPE, 20 kt 0-6 km bulk shear) so the
storms should stay below severe limits at this point.

Thursday will have more of a severe weather and possible flash
flooding risk. Weather setup should be similar with departing
storms in the morning, some sun and moisture return in the
afternoon, and a shortwave coming out of eastern Colorado
igniting a line of storms.  Many ensemble models are painting
greater than 0.5 inch of rain especially along and east of
highway 283 and the mean QPF in the Euro and GEFS ensembles is
showing over 1 inch of rain. This confidence is also supported
by PWAT values being forecast at 1-1.25 inches. NBM forecast of
likely POPs along and east of highway 283 for Thursday night is
justified. CAPE values are forecast to be higher at 2500 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts which would support
storms having large hail and gusty wind potential. CSU-MLP has
30% day 4 severe probability from the Colorado border to highway
83 and it wouldn`t surprise me if SPC puts out a risk with the
next update for day 3.

The rest of the long term will have continued storm chances
with isolated to scattered storms developing as ensembles keep
the upper level flow mainly west to southwest with shortwaves
coming over the Rockies and interacting in the central plains
during the afternoon and evening hours. This stretch should help
to make a dent in the drought.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In general we should see VFR flight category and winds under 15
kts for all terminals during the time period. Late tonight
(after 09Z) a weak frontal boundary and upper level disturbance
could lead to some scattered thunderstorms mainly around DDC and
HYS (20-30% chance of storms) between 09-15Z. If storms do form
or move in close proximity to the terminals this could lead to
cloud ceilings falling into the MVFR category.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro