Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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671 FXUS63 KDDC 281019 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 519 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through this weekend. - Winds will generally be from an easterly to southerly direction throughout the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A few showers/embedded thunderstorms are expected across the northern and eastern portions of the CWA this morning. I have placed low pops in to account for this but believe most places will remain dry. Otherwise expect mid level cloudiness to increase throughout the day with winds at the surface from the southeast. A weak shortwave is then expected to move out of the Rockies this evening and into western Kansas. This should create enough lift for thunderstorms to form across eastern Colorado this afternoon and trek into western Kansas this evening. A few of these storms across far southwestern Kansas may become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. These storms should weaken as they head eastward overnight. Another slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday as another weak disturbance moves through the area. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds form the southeast. As for temperatures, highs today look to only reach into the low 80s with lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. Highs tomorrow are only expected to reach around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Ensemble models continue to bring a chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms to western Kansas through the long term forecast. This is due to a series of shortwaves being ejected into the Plains from an upper level long wave trough west of the area. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to pool across the area during this time frame with continued easterly to southerly winds each day. Being the peak of the severe season there could be a few days where severe weather will be possible. Confidence is low on which days will bring the highest risk. Chances of measurable precipitation looks to be the highest Thursday night into Friday then confined to central Kansas over the remainder of the long term forecast. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the upper 70s into the 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 518 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout today with increasing mid level cloudiness. Winds will generally be from the east to southeast gusting to around 20 knots in the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Hovorka_42