447
FXUS63 KDDC 261916
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...Updated Short/Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will be dry and quiet through Monday, with a
  beautiful Memorial Day expected.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, providing beneficial
  welcome rainfall, are expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Final shortwave in the series was moving through central Kansas
at midday, producing a patch of midlevel clouds. Subsidence
will increase through the afternoon with few if any clouds.
Northwest winds will remain noticeably elevated, gusting 30-35
mph through sunset. Full late May insolation and NWly downslope
compression will warm all locations into the 80s through 4 pm.

Clear and quiet tonight, beneath dry WNWly midlevel flow. Winds
will trend to light NWly or light and variable, allowing for
radiational cooling, and Memorial Day sunrise temperatures in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Memorial Day will be a perfect day to get outdoors, with few
clouds, light winds, and warm afternoon temperatures in the
85-90 range. Models show a warming of 2-3C at 850 mb over
Sunday, ensuring most locations will be several degrees above
normal for late May.

Low level southeast flow will commence Monday night, with the
onset of a warm/moist advection pattern, with at least an
increase in cloud cover expected. All guidance to varying
degrees suggest isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing after midnight Tuesday morning in response to the
warm/moist advection, and increased pops to widespread slight
chance (<25%). 12z NAM shows little CAPE, so thunder should be
limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

An extended period of scattered showers and thunderstorms
remains evident through this long term period, Tuesday through
Saturday. 12z MEX 24-hour pops for measurable rain at DDC are
40-50% each of these days. Synoptically, a broad ridge over the
Rockies Tuesday will spread onto the plains Wednesday, in
response to a longwave trough arriving in the northern Rockies.
The longwave trough is forecast to eject onto the northern
plains and the Canadian prairies Thursday and Friday. This
evolution will ensure south/southeast boundary layer flow will
be persistent through the period, with continued open access to
gulf moisture. As such, the dryline will remain draped north-
south, efficiently backed up westward on the high plains,
sloshing/mixing back and forth daily. Widespread NBM pops in
the chance, to at times, likely category, are spread throughout
the long term period, and these were accepted. Severe potential
is not synoptically evident on any day, with rather benign zonal
westerly midlevel flow, and better forcing for ascent well to
the north, closer to the base of the northern plains trough.
Still, moisture and thus instability will be in place daily,
and subtle shortwaves will undoubtedly be present. We are in the
peak of severe climatology for SW KS, so am confident strong to
severe thunderstorms will be present at times during the long
term. Mesoscale interactions, and impacts from previous day`s
convection and outflows, will be important.

Beneficial rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday, with
12z EPS probability of cumulative qpf > 0.50 inch over the five
day period near 50% along the KS/CO border, ranging to near 100%
over the eastern zones. Whatever rain we can get will be
welcomed, with much of SW KS once again mired in severe drought
conditions.

With cloud cover and moisture prevailing, and easterly upslope
components persisting, afternoon temperatures will be held to
near normal for late May, in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Good to excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF
period. NW winds will be strong through 00z Mon, gusting to near
30 kts. Winds will diminish quickly to light NWly at sunset, and
remain light NWly into Monday. Subsidence is clearing out the
sky currently, and VFR/SKC will continue through 18z Monday and
beyond.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner