Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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360 FXUS63 KDDC 181900 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight storms in northwest and north central Kansas could have some brief gusty winds. - A more organized severe weather event is on tap for Sunday with the primary threat being downburst winds 70 mph or greater with the potential to be destructive winds. - Cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 18Z observations and upper air analysis shows a cold front located from central Kansas to around Liberal which is slowly progressing to the south and east. Winds behind the front have increased to 20-30 mph. A 1006 mb surface low is located in the Texas panhandle in association with an upper level shortwave while mid level winds are generally zonal. Tonight the main feature of interest is a forecast MCS to develop in northeast Colorado around sunset. Ahead of the storm complex a 700 mb shortwave and surface low will develop and the present cold front will lift back to the north as a warm front which should allow the return of more robust moisture as the winds switch back to the southeast. Through the evening and overnight hours BUFKIT soundings in northwest and northcentral Kansas show the storm will be quite elevated and the main threat would be downburst winds up to 60 mph and as a result there is a marginal risk of severe weather. These storms will likely affect areas along an north of a Syracuse to Hays line through sunrise Sunday morning. Sunday there should be a brief outflow boundary from the overnight convection which will stabilize the atmosphere through mid morning. Afterwards as the winds turn back to the southeast we will have growing moisture and instability ahead of a developing dryline along the Kansas-Colorado border. Mid level temperatures will be quite warm at 10-11(C) however with forecast highs reaching to the mid 90s around the dryline this should be warm enough to erode any cap we have. A 700 mb shortwave should move into the vicinity of the dryline around 20-21Z and thunderstorm initatiaon should quickly result around the Kansas/Colorado border. If we do have any supercells they will quickly evolve into a linear squall line within a couple hours. With short term models forecasting 3,000 J/kg or more CAPE these storms will have plenty of energy to work with as the progress eastward. Main threat for severe weather on Sunday will be straight line winds as the 12Z HRRR has hints of wind gusts approaching 75-80 kts once the line gets into the most robust moisture along and east of highway 183. Secondary threat with any squall line could be some brief QLCS spin up tornadoes embedded in the line. Hail threat will be the most with inital storm development and then lessen as the storms become more linear. The bulk of the line should be through by Sunday evening. Sunday evening as the main line of storms moves into central Kansas HRRR models hint at a secondary line of storms developing on an outflow/frontal boundary along K-96. If there is any instability left after the intial line this could certainly be a possiblity. Storms look to fester between K-96 and I-70 through close to sunrise on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 No cold air advection is expected behind Sunday`s shortwave, with another hot afternoon expected Monday. A weak wind shift/cold frontal boundary will sag southward through the day, and the hottest temperatures are expected adjacent to Oklahoma ahead of the boundary Monday afternoon. The favored Red Hills through Barber county continue with 00z GEFS highest probability of exceeding 100 degrees, and highs in the upper 90s are forecast for these zones. A new surface cyclone is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado 7 pm Monday, and models show strong instability in the afternoon with CAPE > 2000 J/kg. Models forecast warm 700 mb temperatures in the 11-12C range, and it is doubtful the expected weak wind shift line would offer enough of a trigger to initiate convection through the cap. NBM is dry daylight Monday and this forecast was accepted. Model consensus places a strong closed 557 dm low over western Wyoming 7 am Tuesday. This will strengthen midlevel SWly flow over SW KS, and the associated surface low will track northeast to near Hays sunrise Tuesday. Noticeably cooler and drier air will flow into SW KS Tuesday behind the associated cold front on elevated northwest winds. This synoptic evolution is expected to dryslot SW KS, pushing moisture and instability out of the region. The cooler air is forecast to be reinforced Wednesday, with the cold front being shoved south well into West Texas. NBM has come into agreement with the ensembles and 00z MEX with Wednesday being the coolest day next week, with lows in the 40s and afternoon temperatures reduced to the 70s. As such, high confidence that Wednesday will be dry, but in late May, return flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture is usually quick and easy. Indeed, south winds and moisture advection return Thursday, with 00z ECMWF and several EPS ensemble members suggesting warm air advection driven rainfall is possible Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will be breezy this afternoon as a cold front slowly moves through western Kansas with wind speeds around 10-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. Tonight a band of showers and storms will move out of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas and could be close to HYS and GCK airports between 07-10Z. During the day on Sunday winds will increase ahead of a dryline out of the south at 20-25 kts sustained and over 30 kt gusts as we approach 17-18Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Tatro