272
FXUS63 KDDC 030347
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical early summer weather for the next several days, with
  seasonably hot afternoons and little chance of rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Linear outflow dominated thunderstorm complex is dissipating in
response to strong capping at 700 mb (14C on 00z DDC sounding).
With moist southeast winds ahead of the outflow boundary,
continued attempts at weak convection are possible, but the
threat of severe wind/hail has been reduced to near zero. Will
monitor for convection over the southeast counties through early
morning. After coordination with SPC, cancelled severe
thunderstorm watch #376 for all of SW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The atmosphere has been fairly worked over early this
afternoon in the wake of the morning storms. This is
particularly true for the central and eastern zones of the FA.
This does introduce some uncertainty in the forecast as far as
storm redevelopment goes. For example, the 3 km NAM has storms
developing, but quickly kills this activity as the storms heads
east towards the more stable air. This cam solution is different
than the HRRR and ARW. These two models reload the atmosphere
with 3000 J/kg of CAPE redeveloping across the western zones by
late afternoon. Examining surface dewpoints does show 60+
dewpoints advecting in, so am tempted to go with the solution
that shows another severe thunderstorm complex rolling across
the Kansas plains late this afternoon and into the mid evening
hours. Storms should develop along a lee trough late this
afternoon either along the Colorado border or just east of it.
This activity should then head east and be along the Highway 283
corridor by mid evening. As far as threats are concerned, the
primary threat is damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph. 1-3" hail is
also possible if there are supercell structures. Bulk shear
though is more marginal today, so think the primary threat would
be the microbursts. Activity should be diurnally driven with a
possible weakening trend as this activity heads east of Highway
283 to the far eastern zones late this evening. Otherwise, lows
tonight will be seasonal with values in the 50s and 60s. A more
quiet day is expected Monday. If there were to be any storms, it
would be relegated to the eastern zones and only slight pops at
that. Otherwise, highs will be seasonal with values in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

EPS has a 500-hPa ridge developing across the spine of the
southern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. This building ridge is
also reflected in EPS probabilities of +90F in the 50% to 70%
range midweek. The long and short of it is that a return to
summer-like weather is expected midweek with generally dry
conditions and hotter highs. Now how long these warmer
temperatures will last is in question as EPS flattens the ridge
next weekend. Several of the EC ensemble members show returning
storm chances next weekend. At this point, will just go with the
NBM solution due to the uncertainty. That has pops in the 15%
to 30% range by the end of the period. A general decrease in
temperatures may be possible with storms around, although that
is not 100% certain as some of the EC ensemble members are dry.
Will watch for now and look for any particular trends in the
ensembles as time goes forward in future runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Thunderstorms have failed to maintain this evening, and
remainder of the night is expected to remain dry as convective
debris diminishes. Consensus of short term models suggests MVFR
stratus may develop through 12z Mon southeast of DDC. Otherwise,
good flying weather is expected through Monday, with VFR/SKC and
much lighter winds compared to Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner