824
FXUS63 KDDC 022302
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of severe thunderstorms tonight with wind and hail
  threats

- Summer-like pattern with hotter highs and generally drier
  conditions Wednesday and Thursday

- Lower uncertainty with a return of isolated storms for rest of
  the period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Storms have split across far eastern Colorado and now have propagated
into far western Kansas. The left split will favor large hail and
a faster storm motion across Hamilton county. 1.25" to 1.75" hail
and damaging winds will be possible for the right splits across Stanton
and Morton counties. Dewpoints in the mid 60s have advected ahead
of these storms. MUCAPE is analyzed around 4000 J/kg, so there is
plenty of instability for these storms to utilize. One fly in the
ointment is that 700 hPa temperatures are increasing this evening
and forcing from the synoptic wave is more weak. As such, it is uncertain
how these storms will evolve and just how far east they will propagate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The atmosphere has been fairly worked over early this afternoon in
the wake of the morning storms. This is particularly true for the
central and eastern zones of the FA. This does introduce some uncertainty
in the forecast as far as storm redevelopment goes. For example,
the 3 km NAM has storms developing, but quickly kills this activity
as the storms heads east towards the more stable air. This cam solution
is different than the HRRR and ARW. These two models reload the atmosphere
with 3000 J/kg of CAPE redeveloping across the western zones by late
afternoon. Examining surface dewpoints does show 60+ dewpoints advecting
in, so am tempted to go with the solution that shows another severe
thunderstorm complex rolling across the Kansas plains late this afternoon
and into the mid evening hours. Storms should develop along a lee
trough late this afternoon either along the Colorado border or just
east of it. This activity should then head east and be along the
Highway 283 corridor by mid evening. As far as threats are concerned,
the primary threat is damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph. 1-3" hail is
also possible if there are supercell structures. Bulk shear though
is more marginal today, so think the primary threat would be the
microbursts. Activity should be diurnally driven with a possible weakening
trend as this activity heads east of Highway 283 to the far eastern
zones late this evening. Otherwise, lows tonight will be seasonal
with values in the 50s and 60s. A more quiet day is expected Monday.
If there were to be any storms, it would be relegated to the eastern
zones and only slight pops at that. Otherwise, highs will be seasonal
with values in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

EPS has a 500-hPa ridge developing across the spine of the southern
Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. This building ridge is also reflected
in EPS probabilities of +90F in the 50% to 70% range midweek. The
long and short of it is that a return to summer-like weather is
expected midweek with generally dry conditions and hotter highs.
Now how long these warmer temperatures will last is in question as
EPS flattens the ridge next weekend. Several of the EC ensemble members
show returning storm chances next weekend. At this point, will just
go with the NBM solution due to the uncertainty. That has pops in
the 15% to 30% range by the end of the period. A general decrease
in temperatures may be possible with storms around, although that
is not 100% certain as some of the EC ensemble members are dry. Will
watch for now and look for any particular trends in the ensembles
as time goes forward in future runs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main concern is a complex of thunderstorms moving across the region
and moving across the terminals tonight in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe,
give or take an hour. Will continue with VCTS and CB groups in for
the terminals to account for this activity. Wind gusts +50 kt cannot
be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However, it is a bit uncertain
if these outflow winds will directly impact the terminals. Will watch
and amend as needed once confidence increases. GR may be possible
as well, particularly for KGCK and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 15-30
kt out side of storms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden