150
FXUS63 KDDC 272048
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread, but primarily marginal, severe threat exists on
  Thursday.

- Friday has temperatures forecasted in excess of 100F across
  our southeast zones.

- The majority of the forecast period has ensembles showing a
  MCS signal during the evenings although plenty of uncertainty
  around them still is present.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Isolated to Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing
along a surface trough and stationary boundary intersection over
southeast Colorado. Several CAMS show the isolated storms
entering western Kansas around 5 PM and becoming more numerous
with time through the evening hours before exiting the area
after about Midnight. These storm swill have potential for
producing severe wind gusts to 70 mph and up to quarter size
hail, as well as intense rainfall rates of one to three inches
per hour and localized flash flooding given the 95th percentile
of precipitable water and 2500-3000 SBCAPE. Favored areas for
the severe and intense rains are generally north of highway 400
through the I-70 corridor where better upper level winds and
deep shear and best (around 70%) LCL to LFC mean RH exits for
convective initiation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper-level ridge currently dominates over Kansas and will
continue through the near term. A short wave trough in the mid-
levels will help provide some dynamic support of convection expected
this afternoon. Both the NAM and the RAP show 500mb CVA over our
western zones in the afternoon and while try and assist convection
to overcome the CAP and lack of upper-level mass transport.
Regarding the CAP, recent CAM runs have significantly decreased CIN
values ahead of the forecasted convection. As last nights MCS did
not extend in coverage and intensity, the atmosphere easily
recovered and weakened the forecasted CAP. NAMNST forecast soundings
show a myriad of severe weather ingredients including: CAPE values
of 2000 J/kg, deep layer shear of 30+ knots, low level lapse rates
of 9.3 C/km, DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg, and PWATs of over 1.8 inches.

The main question regarding severe weather Thursday will be storm
mode. CAMs are in agreement that convection will initiate discretely
around 21Z, and disagree for how long. The longer storms can remain
discrete, the greater the overall severe risk (especially the hail
threat). Otherwise all risk categories are in effect over SW Kansas
including a large 2% tornado risk area. 2 inch hail and severe wind
gusts are the primary threat however. After convection congeals, the
severe threat remains present, but decreases significantly.

Friday morning after lingering precipitation exits the forecast
area, a combination of WAA and diurnal processes will quickly warm
up. With the SE corner of the forecast area expected by ensembles to
reach greater than 104F. As a result, a heat advisory has been
issues for the southeastern six counties from noon until 8 PM CDT.
Later on Friday, CAMs have continued to show a MCS signal come out
of Colorado around 23Z. However, the CAMs` trends continue to push
the MCS farther north, further decreasing the chance for widespread
precipitation potential. Ensembles place our northern zones at over
50% chance for accumulating precipitation, but if previous trends
continue this will also decrease.

Saturday, ensembles has a reprieve of precipitation across the
entire forecast area with no points having greater than a 25% chance
for accumulating rainfall. Sunday however, another MCS is expected
to track across our southern area although uncertainty still remains
on the exact timing and location.

The remainder of the forecast period appears to continue the MCS
abundant pattern with some signal every night. The highest
probabilities and means from the ensembles place it in northwestern
Kansas similar to the Friday signal. Wednesday`s MCS appears to be
farther south and more widespread across ensembles, but confidence
that far out is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the TAF
period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
afternoon around 20Z across all of SW Kansas so VCTS have been
included in the TAFs despite some lingering uncertainty in
exact timing and coverage. Throughout the period, winds will
shift from the SSE to W with the afternoon seeing gusts of up to
30 knots from the south before lightening in the evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJohnson
AVIATION...KJohnson
MESOSCALE...Russell