955
FXUS63 KDDC 162232
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for strong to marginally severe
  thunderstorms across west central Kansas and southwest Kansas
  this evening.

- More significant thunderstorm chances (40-60%) are forecast
  late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains well downstream of an upper level trough of low
pressure pushing southeast off the Pacific into the Pacific Northwest.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
in extreme southeast Colorado.

There is a minimal chance (20-30%) for isolated strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms across portions of southwest Kansas this evening
as the SREF indicates a southwest flow aloft developing across the
Western High Plains downstream of the upper level trough digging
southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, prevailing
southerlies continue to help reinforce a deep pool of moisture ahead
of an anchored lee side trough in southeast Colorado, pushing surface
dewpoints well up into the mid/upper 60s(F). Steepening mid-level
lapse rates from strong daytime heating combined with more than
sufficient instability with MUCAPE values well above 2000-3000 J/kg
will set the stage for potential thunderstorm development late
this afternoon as H5 vort maxima eject out of the southern Rockies,
interacting with an axis of increased low level convergence associated
with the aforementioned lee side trough. Dynamic support aloft looks
less than robust with a rather weak field of southwesterlies spreading
east through the high plains, limiting the coverage of any convective
development, as well as severe potential. Any storms that do develop
could fester/redevelop during the overnight hours as a strong +50kt
low level jet kicks in across southwest Kansas. The latest HREF
supports the lower precip chances and isolated nature indicating
only a 10-20% probability of a more miss than hit 6-hr QPF exceeding
a tenth of an inch.

After a similar set up with a 20% chance of isolated storms across
a small portion of western Kansas late Monday afternoon/evening,
more significant thunderstorm chances (40-60%) arrive late Tuesday
into early Wednesday as medium range ensembles show an upper level
trough swinging east through the Northern Rockies into the Northern
High Plains, ushering an attendant cold front southeastward into
northern Kansas before stalling out by Tuesday evening. Considering
the ample amount of moisture/instability present, thunderstorm
development is likely in vicinity of the frontal boundary in
conjunction with peak heating. Taking in the projected location
of the stalled boundary, the NBM paints a 40-50% probability of
12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter inch across portions of west central
and central Kansas, including the vicinity of the I-70 corridor, by
early Wednesday morning.

Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas. The
latest HREF indicates a 50-70% probability of temperatures dropping
below 70F, so look for lows generally in the upper 60s(F)/lower
70s(F). The trend of unseasonably warm days continues Monday and
Tuesday with little change to the general air mass across western
Kansas, so widespread afternoon highs in the 90s(F) can be expected.
Cooler air arrives Wednesday with below normal temperatures forecast
in west central Kansas behind the stalled frontal boundary with much
warmer temperatures still expected in south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms developing in extreme
southwest Kansas will drift slowly northeast this evening,
potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL generally
after 02-04Z. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions are expected
to continue through early Monday. Southerly winds around 15 to
25kt with gusts up to 30kt are expected to persist throughout
much of the period as a strong lee side trough of low pressure
remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson