Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
298 FXUS63 KDDC 190742 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend. Northern zones will have the highest probability of measurable rain with lesser amounts across south central Kansas. - Strong cold front behind weekend storm system will lead to beginning of cooler period with highs in the 70s to low 80s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The weather pattern over the next few days will consist of an upper level area of high pressure over the Southern Plains and an upper level low digging into the Desert Southwest today, Four Corners region by Friday night, and into the Central High Plains by Saturday night. Southwest flow aloft is expected over the area as this feature approaches. As for the weather pattern closer to the surface, expect mostly clear skies today with a weak cold front moving through the area this morning. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day with winds shifting from the southwest this morning to the northwest by this afternoon. Highs today look to range from the upper 80s across west central and far western Kansas where the cold front will move through early this morning to upper 90s across south central Kansas where the cold front is not expected to move through until the early afternoon. Currently, there is a 20-50 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees across Barber County with less than 20 percent across the remainder of south central Kansas. Winds then become almost calm tonight as high pressure oozes into the forecast area. Lows tonight look to range from the mid 50s across west central Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas. A quiet weather pattern continues through the day Friday with an slight chance of thunderstorms Friday night as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Currently short range ensemble models show there is less than a 20 percent chance of 0.10 inches of rain or more Friday night. Highs Friday will generally be in the 90s with lows Friday night ranging from the low 60s along the KS/CO border to low 70s across south central Kansas. A better chance of precipitation is expected Saturday into this weekend as the aforementioned upper level low moves just north of the area. As of the current mid term ensemble runs, the probability of a half of an inch of rain or more this weekend ranges from less than 20 percent across south central Kansas to over 50 percent north of a line from Great Bend, Dodge City, to Liberal. This system will also usher in colder air to the area Sunday into next week. Highs will start out ranging from the low 80s west to mid 90s across south central Kansas Saturday. We then see temperatures only reaching into the 70s to low 80s Sunday through next week. The coldest temperatures over the next 7 days looks to be Monday morning. Lows look to range from the mid 40s across far western Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. There is currently a 25 percent chance that temperatures at or below 45 degrees will be possible across portions of west central Kansas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds will start out form a southerly direction early this morning, curling to the northwest by late morning behind a cold front. Winds will then become light and variable tonight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Hovorka_42