408
FXUS63 KDDC 242004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
304 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures can be expected across western Kansas
  through the upcoming weekend period. Highs each day will range
  from the upper 70s to near 85 degrees, with warmest
  temperatures in the west.

- Dry conditions can be expected over the next 7 days. We are
  still monitoring the slight chance of light rain east of a
  Larned to Coldwater line but currently the chance for this is
  currently <10%.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

At 12z Tuesday morning, a -16C to -18C 500mb trough extended
from western Minnesota to the Central Plains. At the surface, a
cold front stretched from southeast Nebraska across northern
Kansas and into west central Colorado. Since then, the cold
front has moved across southwest Kansas, and as of 18z, it
extended from south central Kansas into the Texas Panhandle,
with gusty north winds developing across southwest Kansas. The
upper level trough at 18z was located over central Kansas. This
upper level trough will continue to move southeast tonight and
deepen across the mid Mississippi Valley through the last half
of the work week as an upper level ridge builds into the Central
Rockies. This weather pattern will limit the magnitude of the
warming potential across western Kansas from the downslope flow
that may have developed late week due to a persistent cool
easterly flow across Kansas, weak as it may be. Ensembles today
are still struggling with just how warm it will be each day,
based on the 25th to 75th percentile spread in surface and 850mb
temperatures. However, even accounting for this uncertainty,
highs each day appear to be as warm or a degree or two warmer
than the previous day through the end of the work week. Highs on
Friday are expected to be from around 80 to near 85.

Over the weekend and into early next week, the ensemble
clusters remain consistent with previous runs in showing a
general trend of an upper low over the mid Mississippi
Valley slowly moving northeast toward the Ohio Valley and
weakening. Exact details on its location and track remains
unclear, which is expected, given how models often struggle with
a cutoff upper low in the extended periods.

Early in the weekend, the ensemble clusters continue to show
moisture spreading northwest of this upper low into central
Kansas. However, the latest ensemble clusters have backed off on
how far west this moisture and lift will spread. As a result,
the chance for rain has decreased late Friday into Saturday.
Still, a slight chance of rain east of a Larned to Coldwater
line cannot be completely ruled out, as 20-30% of the ensemble
clusters still forecast a 20-30% chance of 0.01" or more over a
24-hour period ending at 1 PM Saturday. In the same timeframe
and area, the chance of receiving more than 0.1" of rain is less
than 15%. This will be the only rain chance over the next seven
days.

Looking ahead to next week, we will be monitoring the next
surface cold front crossing the northern Plains early in the
week as a more significant upper level trough moves across the
Central United States. Ensemble clusters are almost evenly split
(50/50) between two solutions. One suggests a stronger upper
level trough crossing the northern Plains, which would push the
cold front across southwest Kansas Tuesday or Wednesday. If this
solution verifies, temperatures around day seven would be about
10F cooler than the current forecast. If the second solution
verifies, highs will be near or slightly above forecast
guidance. Despite these differing solutions in the ensemble
clusters for late in the forecast period, all ensembles continue
to indicate a dry forecast.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Widespread ceilings at or above 12000 ft AGL can be expected
over the next few hours as an upper level trough crosses western
Kansas. Gusty north winds of 15 to 20 knots during the
afternoon will decrease to less than 10 knots after 00z
Wednesday as surface high pressure begins to build into western
Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert