659
FXUS63 KDDC 291713
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will develop again across eastern Colorado this
afternoon and trek into western Kansas this evening. A few cloud be
strong to severe along the KS/CO border

- Another disturbance will move through the area Thursday
afternoon/evening bringing scattered thunderstorms.  A few of these
storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds

- Thunderstorm chances continue Friday into Saturday, then be
  confined to central Kansas Sunday into the first part of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

An upper level ridge will move over the Plains during the short term
forecast with an upper level long wave trough west of the area. A
series of shortwaves will eject from the base of this trough and
into the Plains. Winds at the surface will continue to be from a
south to southeasterly direction through tomorrow advecting moisture
from the south. Expect a few mid level clouds throughout the day
with an increase in cloudiness this evening into the overnight
period. Another round of thunderstorms are expected to form across
eastern Colorado this afternoon and trek into far western Kansas this
evening. A few of these storms in the early evening could be strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
These storms then weaken as they head to the east overnight. These
storms should be confined to central Kansas by Thursday morning with
the remainder of the day being partly cloudy and dry. However, yet
another disturbance is expected to move into the area Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night bringing another chance of
precipitation and storms. SPC currently depicts a slight risk across
much of the CWA Thursday afternoon/evening. As for temperatures,
highs today look to only reach around 80 degrees with lows tonight
reaching around 60 degrees. Highs tomorrow look to range form the mid
70s along the I-70 corridor with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night as
the disturbance mentioned in the short term moves through the area.
Ensemble models suggest that this will be when precipitation
amounts will be the most with some of the models showing over an
inch of rain in some places. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday
and Saturday as a few more disturbances move through the area.
However these don`t look to be a pronounce as Thursday. The
remainder of the long term forecast looks dry with the exception of
central Kansas where afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each
day. Winds throughout the long term forecast will generally be from
a southerly direction. As for temperatures, highs Friday will start
out in the 70s with around 80 degrees across far southwestern
Kansas. Highs then reach into the 80s Saturday with upper 80s to low
90s Sunday into Monday. Lows will start out in the 50s with low 60s
returning by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern
Colorado late this afternoon and early evening and move through
western Kansas during the late evening and overnight hours.
Storms around the LBL and GCK terminals will be in the 01-10Z
time frame, DDC in the 02-13Z timeframe and HYS in the 05-15Z
time frame. With the storms we could see brief drops in
visibility with heavier rains and higher wind gusts. After the
storms pass the residual cloud deck will lead to a 50%
probability of at least MVFR flight category from 12-18Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro